<\/p>\n
By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, <\/b>Reporter<\/i><\/p>\n
THE PHILIPPINES\u2019 agricultural output likely contracted within the first quarter of 2026, weighed <\/span>down by a drop in major crops comparable to rice, and continued weakness in fisheries and livestock <\/span>subsectors, analysts said.<\/p>\n Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar told BusinessWorld<\/i> that he expects farm sector output to shrink by about 3% within the January-to-March period. If this projection is realized, it would be a reversal from the two% growth recorded in the identical period last 12 months.<\/p>\n \u201cFor the primary quarter of 2026, there will likely be a decline of about 3% in comparison with the primary quarter of 2025. Livestock and fisheries are all the time declining,\u201d Mr. Dar said in a Viber message.<\/p>\n The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is ready to release the first-quarter agriculture output data on May 6, a day ahead of the gross domestic product (GDP) data. Agriculture contributes a few tenth to the Philippines\u2019 GDP and roughly 1 \/ 4 of total employment.<\/p>\n Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, told BusinessWorld<\/i> that the projected decline in agricultural output was largely driven by lower rice output, which accounts for roughly 30% to 40% of the full crop production by value.<\/span><\/p>\n In a report on Thursday, the PSA said palay (unmilled rice) production fell by 6.26% to a six-year low of 4.4 million metric tons (MT) in the primary quarter from 4.7 million MT a 12 months earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n Mr. Montemayor said weak farmgate prices within the latter half of 2025 have dampened farmers\u2019 incentive to plant, contributing to the lower harvest.<\/p>\n \u201cThe palay harvested in the primary quarter of 2026 was planted within the last quarter of 2025, during which period palay prices were severely depressed, even with the import ban,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., said the country\u2019s farm output was also affected by damage to a serious irrigation system in Nueva Ecija late last 12 months.<\/p>\n He said the disruption affected about 30,000 to 40,000 hectares of farmland within the country\u2019s top rice-producing province.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the National Irrigation Administration tried to make amends for the repair, recovery of the planted areas affected by an absence of irrigation will likely be delayed, pushing the harvesting of palay to the second quarter,\u201d he earlier told BusinessWorld.<\/i><\/p>\n Meanwhile, Mr. Dar also cited delayed distribution of seeds and fertilizers, uneven government support across subsectors, and weak mobilization of extension services as additional aspects that will have dampened first-quarter output.<\/span><\/p>\n HOG SECTOR RECOVERY Production continues to be affected by the African Swine Fever, he said, but government support is anticipated to help recovery.<\/p>\n \u201cBecause the Department of Agriculture (DA) has given a budget of P1.6 billion for repopulation this 12 months, hog production will definitely be expected to go up soon,\u201d Mr. Ng told BusinessWorld<\/i> via Viber.<\/p>\n He said the budget could fund the procurement of 40,000 gilts, potentially adding 29 million kilos of pork annually.<\/p>\n Mr. Ng also cited Republic Act No. 12308, or the Animal Industry Development and Competitiveness Act, enacted last 12 months, as a key measure supporting the sector\u2019s rebound.<\/p>\n Hog production accounts for about 80% of total livestock output by value. In 2025, hog production was estimated at P246.42 billion, the bottom level for the reason that P189.57 billion recorded in 2001, based on PSA data.<\/p>\n FULL-YEAR CONTRACTION \u201c[There are] tremendous headwinds we will likely be facing in the subsequent three quarters of this 12 months, comparable to high fertilizer prices, fuel and transport costs, and a possible severe El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano <\/span>told BusinessWorld<\/i> via Viber.<\/span><\/p>\n Agriculture output had expanded by 2.6% in 2025, the fastest pace in eight years, mainly on account of gains in crop output and a robust poultry performance.<\/p>\n The DA earlier said palay output could dip to about 18.6 million MT to 18.8 million MT if the costs of fuel and key agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizer, remain elevated through the subsequent cropping season.<\/p>\n If production falls to 18.6 million MT, this may be the bottom palay output for the reason that 17.62 million MT recorded in 2016.<\/p>\n The DA said additionally it is closely monitoring the potential impact of the developing El Ni\u00f1o, which could further reduce yields in the approaching months.<\/p>\n In 2024, farm output contracted by 2.1% when the agriculture sector was affected by drought and dry spells brought on by the El Ni\u00f1o which began in June 2023.<\/p>\n In a press release on Wednesday, the agency added that it’s coordinating with regional offices and other relevant agencies to evaluate vulnerabilities and deploy early interventions ahead of the developing El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n The DA said measures include prepositioning inputs comparable to drought-tolerant seed and assessing irrigation systems in major service areas to anticipate potential water shortages and adjust allocation schedules.<\/p>\n Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters on April 21 that palay output losses for the second cropping season could reach 20% in a best-case scenario and as much as 50% in a worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n To mitigate risks, the DA said it’s exploring the usage of biofertilizers as an economical alternative to fuel-based inputs.<\/p>\n Mr. de Mesa said P500 million of the DA\u2019s P1-billion Quick Response Fund, activated following the declaration of the state of national energy emergency, will likely be used to acquire biofertilizers <\/span>ahead of the subsequent cropping season.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A FARMER removes weeds from his rice field, Feb. 18, 2026. \u2014 PHILIPPINE STAR\/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, Reporter THE PHILIPPINES\u2019 agricultural output likely contracted within the first quarter of 2026, weighed down by a drop in major crops comparable to rice, and continued weakness in fisheries and livestock subsectors, analysts said. 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<\/b>Meanwhile, Alfred Ng, vice chairman of the National Federation of Hog Raisers, said that despite weak livestock performance in the primary quarter, the hog indus<\/span>try may even see improvements in the approaching quarters.<\/p>\n
<\/b>Analysts warned that the agriculture sector may face continued challenges for the remainder of the 12 months, raising the <\/span>risk of a full-year contraction.<\/span><\/p>\n