{"id":333165,"date":"2026-05-12T01:17:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T19:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/?p=333165"},"modified":"2026-05-12T01:17:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T19:47:29","slug":"trump-rejects-iran-deal-response-oil-back-above-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/2026\/05\/12\/trump-rejects-iran-deal-response-oil-back-above-100\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Rejects Iran Deal Response. Oil Back Above $100."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>Oil is screaming higher again, and Wall Street\u2019s transient hope for a quick end to the U.S.-Iran conflict is beginning to evaporate.<\/p>\n<p>After President Donald Trump called Iran\u2019s response to a U.S. peace proposal \u201cunacceptable\u201d on Sunday, traders immediately began repricing the chance that the Strait of Hormuz could remain effectively crippled for a lot longer than markets had expected just days ago. Brent crude surged back above $103 a barrel Monday, while U.S. crude nearly reclaimed the $100 level before pulling back barely.<\/p>\n<p>This matters because the whole global economy still runs on oil, and the market is starting to appreciate this will not be a brief disruption.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Trump calls Iran&#039;s response to US peace proposal &#039;unacceptable&#039;\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9ixN6V-CucI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Market\u2019s \u201cPeace Trade\u201d Just Got Hit<\/h2>\n<p>Last week, oil prices fell sharply on optimism that diplomacy could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal energy flows. That optimism now looks premature.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s public rejection of Iran\u2019s proposal modified the tone overnight. Energy traders who had been betting on de-escalation suddenly found themselves facing the opportunity of a protracted supply squeeze.<\/p>\n<p>The Strait of Hormuz stays one of the vital necessary shipping chokepoints on earth. Roughly a fifth of the world\u2019s oil normally passes through it. Even partial disruption creates immediate pricing pressure because refiners, shipping corporations, and governments begin competing for substitute barrels.<\/p>\n<p>Brent crude rose as high as $105.99 Monday before settling lower. U.S. crude briefly topped $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, the situation appears much more fragile than headlines suggest.<\/p>\n<p>PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said, \u201cDespite reassuring noises that back channels are still open and the parties are talking, our take is that the U.S. and Iran are as distant from agreement as when this supposed ceasefire began.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s the line markets are beginning to price in.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy Markets Are Entering a Latest Phase<\/h2>\n<p>The actual issue now is just not simply whether the Strait reopens.<\/p>\n<p>It is whether or not the worldwide oil system can recuperate quickly even when it does.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Sunday that the world has effectively lost about 1 billion barrels of oil supply over the past two months. That&#8217;s a rare number. Energy infrastructure disruptions create cascading effects across shipping, refining, insurance markets, and inventories.<\/p>\n<p>Even when tanker traffic resumes normally tomorrow, inventories across the system have already been drained.<\/p>\n<p>That explains why JPMorgan now expects oil to stay within the low $100 range for much of the rest of the yr, with a median of roughly $97 expected in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, Wall Street increasingly believes that is becoming a structural energy problem quite than a short lived geopolitical spike.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Quiet Panic Happening in Global Shipping<\/h2>\n<p>Probably the most necessary developments within the Reuters report barely made the headlines.<\/p>\n<p>Tankers are actually moving through the Strait with tracking systems turned off.<\/p>\n<p>That is extremely unusual and signals growing fear amongst shipping operators about becoming targets. In response to Kpler shipping data, not less than three crude tankers recently exited the Strait without lively transponders.<\/p>\n<p>That creates enormous uncertainty for energy traders because transparency in shipping routes is critical for oil pricing models and provide forecasting.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, LNG shipments are still attempting passage, including a Qatari tanker heading toward Pakistan.<\/p>\n<p>The market is now watching whether Iran escalates attacks on business shipping or whether naval escorts turn into vital.<\/p>\n<p>If either happens, energy prices could move sharply higher again.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Investors Should Pay Attention Beyond Oil Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The apparent winners are energy producers, refiners, and choose defense stocks.<\/p>\n<p>However the second-order effects are where things get dangerous.<\/p>\n<p>Higher oil prices act like a tax on consumers and businesses. Transportation costs rise. Manufacturing costs rise. Airline margins get squeezed. Inflation pressures reaccelerate.<\/p>\n<p>That creates a significant complication for the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p>For months, markets had been leaning toward lower rates of interest later this yr. Sustained oil above $100 threatens that entire thesis because rising energy costs can quickly bleed into broader inflation data.<\/p>\n<p>This is strictly the type of environment where market leadership can suddenly rotate.<\/p>\n<p>Energy producers with strong free money flow could proceed outperforming. Airlines, transport corporations, and consumer discretionary names could face renewed pressure. Industrials depending on fuel-intensive logistics might also struggle.<\/p>\n<p>One particularly interesting development got here from FANG parent Diamondback Energy, which reportedly bought options tied to the spread between Brent and WTI crude. The trade appears designed to hedge against the chance that the U.S. could eventually restrict oil exports.<\/p>\n<p>That is just not a traditional hedge.<\/p>\n<p>That may be a company preparing for an extreme market dislocation scenario.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Beijing May Develop into the Wild Card<\/h2>\n<p>Trump is scheduled to reach in Beijing this week to satisfy with Chinese President Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n<p>That meeting suddenly carries enormous significance for energy markets.<\/p>\n<p>China stays one among Iran\u2019s most significant economic relationships and one among the few countries with potential leverage able to pressuring Tehran behind closed doors.<\/p>\n<p>In response to John Evans, markets increasingly consider meaningful progress may not occur until Trump directly seeks Beijing\u2019s help.<\/p>\n<p>Meaning investors aren&#8217;t any longer just trading Middle East headlines.<\/p>\n<p>They&#8217;re trading U.S.-China geopolitical coordination risk as well.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Greater Story Wall Street May Be Missing<\/h2>\n<p>The market keeps treating each oil spike like a short lived geopolitical event.<\/p>\n<p>But something larger could also be developing underneath.<\/p>\n<p>For years, investors operated under the belief that globalization created enough redundancy to soak up regional conflicts. The Iran crisis is exposing how fragile the energy system still is despite years of diversification efforts.<\/p>\n<p>The world still depends heavily on a handful of strategic shipping corridors.<\/p>\n<p>And when one among them breaks, the economic consequences arrive fast.<\/p>\n<p>That realization could also be beginning to reshape how institutional investors take into consideration energy security, domestic production, LNG infrastructure, tanker corporations, and defense spending over the subsequent decade.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Catalysts Investors Should Watch Next<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Diplomatic Developments<\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trump\u2019s meetings in Beijing this week<\/li>\n<li>Any indication China will pressure Iran<\/li>\n<li>Signs of direct U.S.-Iran backchannel negotiations<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strait of Hormuz Activity<\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Whether tanker traffic increases or declines<\/li>\n<li>Additional vessels disabling tracking systems<\/li>\n<li>Potential naval protection efforts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil Market Reactions<\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent crude sustaining levels above $100<\/li>\n<li>WTI-Brent spread widening further<\/li>\n<li>Strategic petroleum reserve discussions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Federal Reserve Implications<\/h3>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation expectations moving higher<\/li>\n<li>Bond yields reacting to energy costs<\/li>\n<li>Rate-cut expectations being delayed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Take<\/h2>\n<p>The market wanted a fast resolution.<\/p>\n<p>As a substitute, investors are actually confronting the chance that this conflict could reshape energy pricing for the remainder of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Oil above $100 does not only impact gas stations. It changes inflation expectations, central bank policy, corporate margins, consumer spending, and geopolitical alliances unexpectedly.<\/p>\n<p>And without delay, the market still doesn&#8217;t appear fully positioned for that reality.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"awpa-title\">About Creator<\/h3>\n<div class=\"wp-post-author-wrap wp-post-author-shortcode left\">\n<div class=\"awpa-tab-content active\" id=\"1_awpa-tab1\">\n<div class=\"wp-post-author\">\n<div class=\"awpa-img awpa-author-block Round\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-post-author-meta awpa-author-block\">\n<h4 class=\"awpa-display-name\">\n                    David Clemen<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<div class=\"wp-post-author-meta-bio\">\n<p>\u201cFacts don&#8217;t stop to exist because they&#8217;re ignored.\u201d \u2013 Aldous Huxley<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil is screaming higher again, and Wall Street\u2019s transient hope for a quick end to the U.S.-Iran conflict is beginning to evaporate. After President Donald Trump called Iran\u2019s response to a U.S. peace proposal \u201cunacceptable\u201d on Sunday, traders immediately began repricing the chance that the Strait of Hormuz could remain effectively crippled for a lot [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":325271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[985,15256,2667,5767,3326,1313],"class_list":["post-333165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-deal","tag-iran","tag-oil","tag-rejects","tag-response","tag-trump"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=333165"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":333167,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/333165\/revisions\/333167"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/325271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=333165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=333165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=333165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}