{"id":346450,"date":"2026-06-06T07:49:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T02:19:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/?p=346450"},"modified":"2026-06-06T07:49:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T02:19:50","slug":"matt-schnell-vs-alessandro-costa-prediction-odds-pick-for-ufc-vegas-118","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/2026\/06\/06\/matt-schnell-vs-alessandro-costa-prediction-odds-pick-for-ufc-vegas-118\/","title":{"rendered":"Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 118"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gambling shouldn’t be offered on this website in any form.<\/p>\n

\n

UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim kicks off the primary card with a fight between Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa at 130-pounds catchweight on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Schnell-Costa prediction and pick.<\/p>\n

Matt Schnell (17-10) is a crafty submission specialist who has been within the trenches of the UFC flyweight division for years. He picked up a gutsy unanimous decision win over Jimmy Flick at UFC on ESPN in April 2025, but then suffered a fast guillotine choke submission loss to Joseph Morales in the primary round at UFC Fight Night in November 2025. Now desperately needing a win having lost 4 of his last five, Schnell’s submission game stays his biggest weapon as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alessandro Costa.<\/p>\n

Alessandro Costa (15-5) is a dangerous UFC flyweight with serious ending power in each his hands and his submission game. After suffering a brutal third-round TKO loss to Alden Coria at Noche UFC in September 2025, Costa bounced back in style with a vicious liver shot TKO finish over Stewart Nicoll in round two at UFC Vegas 115 in April 2026. Now riding a one-fight win streak with five profession KO wins and 6 submission victories, Costa brings legitimate ending ability as he comes into his fight this weekend against Matt Schnell.<\/p>\n

UFC Vegas 118 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

UFC Vegas 118 Odds: Matt Schnell-Alessandro Costa Odds<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Matt Schnell: +490<\/p>\n

Alessandro Costa: -675<\/p>\n

Over 1.5 rounds: +124<\/p>\n

Under 1.5 rounds: -160<\/p>\n

Why Matt Schnell <\/strong>Will Win<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Matt \u201cDanger\u201d Schnell is one of the vital experienced submission grapplers within the UFC flyweight division, and that depth of experience shall be a significant factor against a still-developing Costa. With nine profession submission victories, Schnell’s ground game is a legitimate ending threat that Costa has never faced at this level.<\/p>\n

Schnell’s ability to search out submissions from seemingly not possible positions is well-documented throughout his UFC profession, and Costa’s grappling defense has not been tested consistently against elite-level wrestlers and grapplers. If Schnell can get this fight to the mat, Costa’s path to victory narrows significantly.<\/p>\n

Costa’s recent TKO loss to Alden Coria in September 2025 showed that he might be stopped and that his chin shouldn’t be bulletproof. Schnell, despite his losses, has shown the flexibility to weather adversity and keep looking for submissions deep into fights.<\/p>\n

Costa’s UFC record of 3-3 also reveals a fighter who has struggled to search out consistency at the best level, going backwards and forwards between wins and losses. Schnell’s veteran savvy and ring generalship give him the tools to use those inconsistencies over three rounds.<\/p>\n

Why Alessandro Costa <\/strong>Will Win<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Alessandro \u201cNono\u201d Costa is coming off a press release performance, ending Stewart Nicoll with a devastating liver shot TKO in April 2026, and that type of momentum is incredibly dangerous for a shot-taking veteran like Schnell. Costa is hungry, sharp, and hitting his stride at exactly the correct time.<\/p>\n

Costa’s striking power is his biggest weapon, and Schnell’s chin has been cracked before \u2014 he has been finished multiple times in his UFC profession, including a first-round guillotine choke loss to Joseph Morales as recently as November 2025. A fighter willing to walk forward and throw power shots will all the time be a nightmare matchup for Schnell.<\/p>\n

Costa’s TKO ending ability on the feet gives him a transparent path to victory before the fight ever hits the mat. If he can keep Schnell upright and land his power combos early, the fight may very well be over before \u201cDanger\u201d ever gets a probability to implement his grappling game.<\/p>\n

Schnell has lost 4 of his last five fights, and his output and timing have visibly declined at this stage of his profession. Costa, at just 30 years old, is the brisker, more athletic fighter who should give you the option to outpace Schnell over three rounds.<\/p>\n

Final Matt Schnell-Alessandro Costa <\/strong>Prediction & Pick<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa represent two very different paths to victory \u2014 Schnell looking for submissions from the underside while Costa looks to maintain the fight standing and land his power shots. The important thing variable is whether or not Schnell can survive the early striking storm and drag this fight into deep waters.<\/p>\n

Costa’s momentum, ending power, and youth advantage make him the more dangerous fighter within the opening rounds. If he can hurt Schnell early and keep the fight upright, the finish is well close by for \u201cNono.\u201d<\/p>\n

Schnell has shown throughout his profession that he’s able to pulling off surprising submission victories even when on the back foot. Nonetheless, his recent skid of 4 losses in five fights is solely too hard to overlook heading into Saturday.<\/p>\n

Alessandro Costa gets the win by TKO within the second round, using his striking power and momentum to overwhelm a fading Schnell and pick up a press release victory at UFC Vegas 118.<\/p>\n

Final Matt Schnell-Alessandro Costa <\/strong>Prediction & Pick: Alessandro Costa (-675), Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim kicks off the primary card with a fight between Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa at 130-pounds catchweight on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Schnell-Costa prediction and pick. Matt Schnell (17-10) is a crafty submission specialist who has been within the trenches of the UFC flyweight division for years.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gambling shouldn’t be offered on this website in any form. UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim kicks off the primary card with a fight between Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa at 130-pounds catchweight on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Schnell-Costa prediction and pick. Matt Schnell (17-10) is a crafty submission […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":346451,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21048],"tags":[14706,7905,8588,5711,5909,3595,31893,3928,2070],"class_list":["post-346450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","tag-alessandro","tag-costa","tag-matt","tag-odds","tag-pick","tag-prediction","tag-schnell","tag-ufc","tag-vegas"],"aioseo_notices":[{"message":"The permalink for this post just changed! This could result in 404 errors for your site visitors.","status":"warning","options":{"id":"0a2ae5f84bc2c0423042ed7ec22d2e40","isDismissible":true,"actions":[{"url":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/wp-admin\/admin.php?page=aioseo-redirects","label":"Add Redirect to improve SEO","class":"aioseo-redirects-slug-changed"}]},"allowedContexts":["posts"]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346450"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":346453,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346450\/revisions\/346453"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ebiztoday.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}