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As one in all the several European fighters competing at UFC Saudi Arabia, Said Nurmagomedov (18-3) returns to center stage to tackle emerging contender Vinicius Oliveira (21-3). It is time to proceed our UFC odds series with a Nurmagomedov-Oliveira prediction and pick.
Nurmagomedov shall be making his tenth walk to the Octagon. The previous ranked contender has not fought in 15 months after having three fights canceled in 2024. He’s coming off a first-round submission of Muin Gafurov at UFC 294 and has won five of his last six fights.
Despite having less UFC experience, Oliveira actually has more overall MMA experience. ‘Lok Dog’ is making just his third appearance within the UFC but has already competed 24 times by the age of 29. Oliveira is coming off a formidable 2024, through which he dominated divisional veteran Ricky Simón three months after viciously knocking out Benardo Sopaj in his promotional debut.
Listed here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Odds
Said Nurmagomedov: -162
Vinicius Oliveira: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Said Nurmagomedov Will Win
Nurmagomedov shall be one of the best striker and overall fighter Oliveira has ever faced in his profession. That might pose problems for a fighter in Oliveira who’s used to carrying his hands low and running through most opponents he has ever matched up with. Nurmagomedov’s size may be a problem, as his tall frame matches that of Oliveira, who towered over each of his previous UFC opponents.
Contrary to what his name suggests, Nurmagomedov is one of the diverse and artistic strikers within the UFC bantamweight division. No one Oliveira has ever fought had anything near Nurmagomedov’s speed, precision and dexterity. Nurmagomedov can actually wrestle and shall be the more technical grappler of the 2, but his distance management and speed shall be a mountain of a challenge for Oliveira to beat.
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Oliveira has greater than fallen in love together with his power, picking up 76 percent of his profession victories by knockout. That has been a double-edged sword at times, as he tends to overswing and put defense on the backburner with the idea in his power. In each of his three profession losses, Oliveira got caught attempting to recklessly close distance and paid the value. Few bantamweights have been higher at sniping reckless advancers than Nurmagomedov, who has never been knocked out in his 15-year profession.
Why Vinicius Oliveira Will Win
Neither fighter tends to waste any time once the clock rolls, but Nurmagomedov shall be the fighter lighter on his feet within the opening round. Nonetheless, while he is rarely stagnant in round one and is an authority at creating angles, he’s vulnerable to getting backed against the fence. That lines up with Oliveira, who is rarely one to take a backstep. Working on cutting off the circle-outs of Nurmagomedov must have been the main target of his camp.
For Oliveira, energy management shall be the important thing to his success. He loves to have interaction early and infrequently, but against Nurmagomedov, patience shall be his best friend. Nurmagomedov is a handful early but tends to fade on the midway point of each fight if it gets to that time. After that mark, he is far less dynamic and loads easier to contain. Oliveira doesn’t have one of the best cardio but does appear to have the higher gas tank of the 2.
If Oliveira can manage to remain inside himself — a giant if — he’ll gain momentum throughout the fight like a boulder rolling downhill. Once Nurmagomedov fatigues, he tends to wrestle, which regularly gets him into more trouble. Oliveira shouldn’t be an ideal defensive wrestler or grappler but could have the strength advantage, which is good enough to fend off a drained, sloppy Nurmagedov. The important thing shall be surviving the early storm.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick
If there’s one thing guaranteed on this fight, it’s that Oliveira will come out with the identical confident Muay Thai approach. It is identical style that made Carlos Prates a preferred welterweight contender. Nonetheless, unlike Prates, Oliveira relies on big, wild actions to get his finishes as an alternative of technicality.
Fighters who keep their hands low, like Oliveira, typically depend on elite head movement and odd angles to get the job done. Oliveira presents a troublesome style to face, but so does Nurmagomedov. Oliveira’s head movement can be not where it ought to be. His reach and athleticism have typically been enough to remain out of harm’s way, but those benefits is not going to be at his disposal against Nurmagomedov.
It is difficult to say which version of Nurmagomedov will emerge after a greater than year-long layoff, however the time away seemed more attributable to unlucky timing than the rest. While not going, Oliveira can still catch Nurmagomedov with one in all his wild hooks. It’s just easier to see the faster and cleaner striker finding the mark on an opponent who relies more on athleticism than technical defense.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Said Nurmagomedov (-162), Under 2.5 rounds (+105)
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