MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. Today, he takes a more in-depth take a look at the UFC 312 co-main event title fight between women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili and Tatiana Suarez.
Zhang Weili UFC 312 preview
Zhang Weili
Staple info:
- Record: 25-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
- Last fight: Decision win over Yan Xiaonan (April 13, 2024)
- Camp: Bang Tao Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 11 knockout victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong contained in the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Improved wrestling and scrambling
+ Good transitional grappling from topside
+/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws
Tatiana Suarez UFC 312 preview
Tatiana Suarez
Staple info:
- 11-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 66″
- Last fight: Submission win over Jessica Andrade (Aug. 5, 2023)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 23 winner
+ Accoladed wrestling background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving southpaw striking
+ Strong within the clinch
^ Knees, trips and tosses
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Solid submission acumen
^ Works well from front-headlock
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez focal point: Looming threats
Zhang Weili
The co-main event in Australia encompasses a strawweight title fight between two women who wish to put a stamp on this division.
Annointned because the “Khabib of Women’s MMA,” Tatiana Suarez is a dominant force who has seemingly been destined to compete for gold within the UFC for quite a while now. And though Suariez’s striking has often been characterised as a way to an end on her come-up, the American standout has shown some measurable strides since her injury layoff of nearly 4 years.
Now working with coach Nate Pettit at Xtreme Couture MMA, Suarez is showing lots of the usual tools that no southpaw should leave home without.
From teep to Thai kick change-ups from the rear to an underrated southpaw jab as her lead, Suarez possesses the essential constructing materials in terms of managing distance and putting some proverbial money within the bank.
I wouldn’t mind seeing more check hooks and committed crosses from Suarez, but I’m unsure how much she’ll wish to strike with an explosive force like Zhang Weili.
Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang continues so as to add to her striking arsenal as her MMA profession continues.
The present strawweight champion can come forward aggressively but ultimately prefers staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combos.
https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1887045162976862365
Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang will not be shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 35-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.
Nonetheless, outside of a natural feel for distance and the occasional slip off the middle, Zhang has shown that she will not be beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements – particularly when throwing kicks.
For that reason, I’ll be curious to see if the present champion shelves any of her kicks considering the looming takedown threats from the challenger.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Tatiana Suarez
Since grappling is an undeniable crux to the challenger’s game, winning the wrestling will probably be paramount for each parties this Saturday.
An accoladed wrestler from her days in highschool to the worldwide stage, Suarez isn’t any stranger in terms of closed-quarter combat. Although Suarez is greater than able to timing and taking shots within the open, she arguably does her best takedown work when chaining to and from clinching positions.
Once in clinch space, Suarez has excellent wrestling chains she goes to love second nature. Whether she’s snapping down opponents into front-headlock positions or snatching up single-legs on the fly, Suarez seldom seems at a loss for ideas in transition.
Still, Suarez will must be careful to not hang around too long should she fail on any takedown attempts.
As we saw in her first title-winning effort in Shenzhen, China, Zhang possesses the ability to demolish durable opposition with hard knees and elbows inside close quarters.
The champion’s sanda background also is useful when hanging out on this space, showing the flexibility to hit slick trips and takedowns on the drop of a dime.
Since then, Zhang has upgraded her wrestling chops by working with talents like Henry Cejudo to the Hickman brothers (who operate out of Bang Tao Muay Thai). Now, it will not be unusual for Zhang to hit competent wrestling chains in open space, almost as if it were second nature.
Zhang has also shown some strides in terms of her defensive instincts, demonstrating all the pieces form strong sprawls to a more urgent scrambling game from bottom. Since shifting her training camp few years back, Zhang has also been working on her jiu-jitsu with Josh Hinger, who I’m sure has the champ well prepared for this weekend.
Nonetheless, despite Zhang being an athletic back-taker besides, “Magnum” will must be mindful in terms of the openings that her aggressive nature presents.
Not only is Suarez an accoladed wrestler, but the present title challenger can be a talented Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has clearly fallen in love with the submission game.
From lights-out front chokes to crushing RNCs, Suarez could make major hay off of opponents who use high underhook getups or turtle positions in an try and scramble back to their feet.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the champion as the favourite, public money has pushed this betting line to select’em odds, listing Suarez -113 and Zhang -113 via FanDuel.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez prediction, pick
Tatiana Suarez
No matter how we came, I can’t say that I disagree with the spread above considering how compelling this matchup is.
Saurez has been preordained to rule over this division in keeping with some, while Zhang, however, has the athleticism and talent to make a case for pound-for-pound greatness should her trajectory stay the course.
I’m unsure if Round 1 will determine the fight, but it can definitely clock in as probably the most white-knuckle frame given each fighter’s history to return out hot. I give Zhang a slight edge within the early going, but imagine that the Chinese champ could find herself in precarious positions the longer this fight goes.
Regardless that Zhang is the more proven party in terms of five-round affairs, she has shown a propensity – in each victory and defeat – to decelerate and drop rounds because of her inherent aggression.
Whereas Suarez, when healthy, appears to be considered one of those grapplers with an limitless gas tank who gets higher because the fight wears on. And whether I’m right about that assumption or not, Suarez has shown the hardwiring to counter all the pieces from kicks to inside trips.
Not only are those crucial tools in the present champion’s repertoire, but Zhang has traditionally struggled with fighters who could counter her in these specific spots.
For that reason (together with Zhang’s inherent aggression), I will probably be picking the challenger this weekend. Unless Zhang can seriously hurt or finish her American counterpart early, then I think that Suarez will find a way to force her win conditions by the center rounds to grow to be to recent strawweight champion via submission.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez start time, where to observe
Because the co-main event, Weili and Suarez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs via ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the cardboard, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 312.
You’ll want to visit the MMA Junkie Instagram page and YouTube channel to debate this and more content with fans of mixed martial arts.
