Europe has “possibly six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the pinnacle of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging Associated Press interview, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the worldwide repercussions of what he called “the most important energy crisis we’ve ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Prior to now there was a bunch called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it’ll have major implications for the worldwide economy. And the longer it goes, the more serious it is going to be for the economic growth and inflation around the globe,” he said.
The impact will probably be “higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices,” Birol told the AP, speaking in his Paris office looking over the Eiffel Tower.
Economic pain will probably be felt unevenly and “the countries who will suffer essentially the most won’t be those whose voice are heard quite a bit. It is going to be mainly the developing countries. Poorer countries in Asia, in Africa and in Latin America,” said the Turkish economist and energy expert who has led the IEA since 2015.
But and not using a settlement of the Iran war that permanently reopens the Strait of Hormuz, “Everybody goes to suffer,” he added.
“Some countries could also be richer than the others. Some countries can have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is proof against this crisis,” he said.
With out a reopening of the waterway, some oil products may dry up, he warned.
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In Europe, “I can let you know soon we are going to hear the news that a number of the flights from city A to city B is perhaps canceled consequently of lack of jet fuel,” he said.
Hormuz tolls a risk for the long run
Birol spoke out against the so-called “toll booth” system that Iran has applied to some ships, letting them travel through the strait for a fee. He said allowing that to turn into more everlasting would run the danger of setting a precedent that would then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Malacca Strait in Asia.
“If we alter it once, it could be difficult to get it back,” he said. “It is going to be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there.”
“I would really like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the purpose A to point B,” he said.
Damage for Persian Gulf energy facilities
Birol said greater than 110 oil-laden tankers and greater than 15 carriers loaded with liquified natural gas are waiting within the Persian Gulf and will help ease the energy crisis if they may escape through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Nevertheless it shouldn’t be enough,” he added.
Even with a peace deal, strikes on energy facilities means it may very well be many months before pre-war production levels are restored, he said.
“Over 80 key assets within the region have been damaged. And out of those 80, multiple third are severely or very severely damaged,” he said.
“It is going to be extremely optimistic to imagine that it is going to very quick,” Birol said. “It is going to take steadily, steadily, as much as two years to return back where we were before the war.”
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