Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 116

The UFC Vegas 116 Prelims will conclude as we present our prediction and pick for this featured bout within the Middleweight (185) Division. Brazil’s Rodolfo Vieira will tackle California’s Eric McConico in what needs to be a competitive tilt. Check our UFC odds series for the Vieira-McConico prediction and pick.

Rodolfo Vieira (11-4) has gone 6-4 since joining the UFC roster in 2019. He’s alternated wins and losses and split his last 4 fights at 2-2, coming back following head-kick knockout against Bo Nickal last November and hoping to redeem himself because the betting favorite. Vieira stands six feet tall with a 73-inch reach.

Eric McConico (10-4-1) is 1-2 contained in the UFC since debuting in 2025, losing his most up-to-date bout to Baisangur Susurkaev at UFC 322. While he’s already been knocked out twice in three appearances, his style makes for an exciting fight that might see him pull out an underdog win. McConico stands six feel tall with a 77-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Odds

Rodolfo Vieira: -278

Eric McConico: +225

Over 2.5 rounds: -125

Under 2.5 rounds: -105

Why Rodolfo Vieira Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Bo Nickal – KO (head kick, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

Rodolfo Vieira took an enormous likelihood in signing to fight Bo Nickal for his last bout, clearly out-matched on the feet as Nickal displayed a few of his striking chops during that outing. He’s taken significant time to return from the knockout loss and needs to be coming back healthy and able to money in as the favourite expected to win this fight.

Vieira has all the time been known for his world-class jiu jitsu resume, posting back-to-back arm triangle victories prior to his last three fights. If he’s in a position to find top position on the bottom, Vieira is nearly all the time in a position to lock his opponent down and attempt numerous submissions while proving his ability to complete the fight as well. Look ahead to his guillotine to be a threat as well, however the arm triangle has been his go-to move when he’s in a position to overpower an opponent from side control or half guard.

Still, every round begins on the feet and Vieira could have to maintain his head moving if he plans on closing the gap and grabbing a hold of McConico. While Vieira’s grappling on the bottom is a few of the perfect on this planet, he only lands 21% of his 2.7 takedowns per fight, so his pure wrestling and takedown variability is something he’s continuously working to enhance.

Why Eric McConico Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Baisangur Susurkaev – KO (right hook, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Eric McConico was tasked with one other tough opponent in Baisangur Susurkaev, getting caught with a flush right hook within the third round that ultimately ended the fight. He showed great resiliency and grit in his three-round war against Cody Brundage, but his first loss got here to an analogous right hook as well. Improving defense and remaining calm within the pocket might be paramount to his success throughout the early stages of this fight.

McConico was still in a position to land numerous big shots on his last opponent, namely a solid elbow that stunned Susurkaev and adjusted the tide within the fight. He’s definitely shown flashes of mature striking, but his 46% striking defense will likely need to enhance if he desires to string together wins and remain intact while doing so.

McConico does have the reach advantage on this matchup and is definitely the more fluid striker on the feet. He’s in a position to string together boxing mixtures whereas Vieira has more of an inclination to strike in violent bursts while using his jab to maintain distance within the interim. McConico definitely has the more varied striking skill set and may look to get creative against his opponent on the feet.

Final Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Prediction & Pick

Rodolfo Vieira comes into this fight the numerous betting favorite because of his edge in experience and big gap within the grappling. If he’s able at any point to notch a clean takedown and land on top of McConico, he needs to be in an amazing spot for his arm triangle and ending this fight early.

Nevertheless, Vieira’s 21% takedown accuracy opposite McConico’s 64% takedown defense could change into a problem as we have seen Vieira struggled to bring opponents down, especially in a while within the fight. If McConico can keep this fight standing, he could have a small edge on the feet and land the cleaner combos while damaging Vieira.

For our final prediction, we’ll side with Rodolfo Vieira to get the win because of his control on the bottom. He should have the ability to win the primary two rounds while making the third competitive, enough to notch him a win on the scorecards if he doesn’t find the arm triangle choke before that.

Final Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Prediction & Pick: Rodolfo Vieira (-278); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-125)