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UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Francis Marshall and Lucas Brennan within the featherweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Marshall-Brennan prediction and pick.
Francis Marshall (9-3) has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, dropping a controversial split decision to Mairon Santos at UFC 313 in March 2025 before bouncing back with a dominant first-round submission win over Erik Silva via rear-naked choke at UFC Fight Night in Mexico City in February 2026. “The Fire” looks to construct momentum and establish some much-needed consistency as he comes into his fight this weekend against Lucas Brennan.
Lucas Brennan (11-2) enters the Octagon for the primary time riding back-to-back first-round rear-naked choke finishes over Austin Coleman and Joshua Weems on the Texas regional circuit in 2025, bouncing back strong after consecutive losses to Dimitre Ivy (PFL) and Mauricio Gomez (Fury FC) in 2024. The 25-year-old “Skywalker” went a dominant 9-0 inside Bellator, ending eight of those opponents, eight of his 11 profession wins coming by submission, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Francis Marshall.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Odds
Francis Marshall: -550
Lucas Brennan: +410
Over 2.5 rounds: -120
Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Why Francis Marshall Will Win
Francis Marshall enters this fight with a major experience advantage, having already competed six times contained in the UFC Octagon against established competition. That seasoning alone could prove to be the difference in what figures to be a high-paced featherweight scrap.
Marshall’s submission game is elite, boasting 4 submission victories on his overall record, which directly counters Brennan’s identity as a grappler. If Brennan looks to pull this fight to the mat, he could also be walking into Marshall’s wheelhouse.
“The Fire” has also shown a capability to dictate where fights occur, keeping opponents uncomfortable on the feet with sharp striking mixtures. A fight that stays standing could expose Brennan’s relative lack of high-level UFC competition on his résumé.
Brennan, while unquestionably talented at 11-2, is making his UFC debut on just five days’ notice, an enormous ask for any fighter no matter their skill level. Short-notice debuts at this level have derailed many promising prospects before they even start.
Marshall, despite his losses, has been battle-tested against ranked competition and knows how you can manage adversity within the cage. That mental edge and Octagon IQ should carry him to a finish inside three rounds.
Why Lucas Brennan Will Win
Lucas Brennan arrives on short notice, but don’t let that idiot you, a 11-2 record with eight submission finishes tells the story of a fighter who’s dangerous every second he’s within the cage. His relentless grappling pressure has smothered opponents at every level he’s competed at.
Marshall has shown real vulnerability on the bottom throughout his profession, and Brennan is precisely the sort of fighter built to show that weakness. Once “Skywalker” gets a body lock or secures a takedown, his ending rate suggests he rarely lets opportunities slip away.
Brennan’s youth and energy at 25 years old is also a major factor, as he brings fresh legs and an aggressive, high-pace style that has overwhelmed opponents consistently. Marshall has struggled at times to keep up his output over three rounds against pressure fighters.
Short-notice situations can actually fuel hungry prospects, stripping away overthinking and forcing a pure, instinct-driven performance. Brennan has nothing to lose entering into the Octagon for his UFC debut, which makes him a genuinely dangerous opponent.
Marshall’s three losses also hint at a fighter who could be cracked under the fitting pressure. Brennan’s combination of elite grappling, youth, and fearlessness could make Saturday night his coming-out party on the largest stage in MMA.
Final Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Prediction & Pick
This fight has all of the makings of a compelling grappling chess match, with each men possessing legitimate submission credentials and the power to complete at any moment. Nonetheless, experience contained in the Octagon is ultimately going to be the deciding factor here.
Marshall’s six UFC bouts have sharpened his ability to administer distance, control pace, and avoid the sort of scrambles that get younger fighters in trouble. Brennan, for all his talent, is entering into a very different atmosphere on five days’ notice.
Search for Marshall to make use of his footwork early, keeping the fight standing and picking Brennan apart with crisp mixtures before on the lookout for his own takedown opportunities within the later rounds. Brennan could have his moments, but Marshall’s Octagon IQ should keep him out of great danger.
The pick here is Francis Marshall by third-round rear-naked choke, as Brennan’s gas tank begins to fade and Marshall smells blood. Marshall improves to 10-3 overall and eventually strings together back-to-back wins contained in the UFC.
Final Francis Marshall-Lucas Brennan Prediction & Pick: Francis Marshall (-550), Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Francis Marshall and Lucas Brennan within the featherweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Marshall-Brennan prediction and pick.