By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Senior Reporter
SINGAPORE — Soaring fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East conflict, coupled with drier-than-usual conditions, are putting increasing pressure on domestic rice production and threatening the Philippines’ food security, based on the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).
“Rising fuel and fertilizer costs driven by Middle East tensions, together with the emerging threat of El Niño, weigh heavily on agricultural production and rice farmers,” IRRI Director-General Yvonne Pinto told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of the Philanthropy Asia Summit on Tuesday.
“The prospects for food security within the Philippines in two, three years from now are going to be much worse, unless we support and enable farmers to generate income from the rice they’re producing,” she said.
Filipino farmers are actually grappling with rising costs and unstable supply of fuel and fertilizer, that are essential to rice production, Ms. Pinto said.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected global supply of fertilizer and caused prices to spike. The Middle East is a hub for fertilizer production. Particularly, the provision of urea from the world’s largest production facility in Qatar has been stopped as a consequence of the conflict.
As an example, the price of urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, is 33% higher today, she noted.
Urea (prilled) prices averaged P2,607.42 per 50-kilogram (kg) bag between May 11 and May 15, significantly higher than the P1,686.03 per 50-kg bag in the identical period last yr, based on data from the Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority.
“So, these geopolitical tensions really escalate the prices,” Ms. Pinto said. “What the federal government can have to do is provide safety nets to farmers in order that they will afford them.”
Before the Iran war, the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) projected palay (unmilled rice) output to succeed in 20.28 million metric tons (MT) this yr, under favorable weather conditions. This has been lowered to 19.87 million MT as a consequence of the Middle East conflict and the looming El Niño.
Ms. Pinto said the El Niño phenomenon threatens to disrupt the country’s rice production in the following few months.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration recently warned of the potential for a moderate to severe dry spell from June until early next yr.
The DA also estimated that agricultural output may very well be slashed by as much as 30% under a “Super El Niño” scenario.
In 2024, total damage to agriculture as a consequence of El Niño reached P15.3 billion, affecting 333,195 farmers and fisherfolk nationwide.
Ms. Pinto said there may be a must give attention to reducing labor costs for rice production through higher seed distribution, mechanization, and fertilizer supply.
Within the medium and long terms, she called for capacity-building for fertilizer production and nature-based solutions like composting to enhance affordability for farmers.
“Our evaluation tells us we only need to lift yields by one ton per hectare,” Ms. Pinto said. “From all the strategies I discussed, it’s achievable.”
She also emphasized higher coordination between national and native governments to make sure farmers profit from agricultural policies.
The country’s rice self-sufficiency ratio, which measures the capability of local production, dropped to 71.7% in 2024, based on the Philippine Statistics Authority. The ratio was the bottom in 37 years, or because the data series began in 1988.
With the Philippines facing one other El Niño this yr, farmers must have increased access to early warning systems, alternative wetting and drying solutions, and irrigation equipment, Ms. Pinto said.
“These shocks are going to proceed, so we’ve got to develop architecture that supports farmers to remain in farming to enable the Philippines to be food secure,” Ms. Pinto said.
For the past 65 years, IRRI has worked closely with the Philippine government through science-based innovations to assist reduce hunger and poverty through rice. Headquartered in Laguna, the organization promotes sustainable agricultural production, improved nutrition, and stronger livelihoods for farmers.