A Russian opposition politician and distinguished critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin says the war in Ukraine is “backfiring” on the regime at home, with signs of falling domestic support because the Kremlin’s army stalls on the battlefield.
In an interview with Global News on Friday, Vladimir Kara-Murza — who has survived multiple alleged poisoning attempts and was free of a 25-year Russian prison sentence for protesting the war in a 2024 prisoner exchange — said mounting military and economic failures have stripped away Putin’s strongman image and exposed him as “increasingly weak.”
“I believe it’s becoming increasingly clear to everyone that this war has really backfired on the Putin regime,” he said in Ottawa, a day after testifying in Parliament in favour of laws that may toughen Canada’s foreign sanctions regime.
“We all know from our own history in Russia that these failed wars of aggression all the time find yourself backfiring against the regimes that began these wars, and ultimately result in very serious political changes contained in the country. And I believe it’s becoming increasingly clear in the previous couple of weeks this is precisely what’s happening in Russia.”
In a Washington Post opinion article this week, Kara-Murza cited a recent poll by the independent Levada Center that found 62 per cent of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, while only 27 per cent support continuing the war, now in its fifth 12 months.
While Kara-Murza noted accurate polling is difficult to acquire in Russia because of the “fear factor” perpetuated by the Kremlin, he suggested the actual variety of those supporting peace talks is probably going far higher.
There have been growing reports of economic hardship in Russia as its wartime economy stagnates, despite increased oil revenues amid the war within the Middle East. Inflation is high and the Kremlin has raised taxes to maintain its budget deficit under control.
Web shutdowns in Moscow and other cities have furthered discontent after some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin began openly criticizing government policies.
Meanwhile, increasing Ukrainian drone attacks have put Russian troops on the back foot while striking deeper into the country, targeting energy facilities and military outposts.
The fear of a Ukrainian attack in Moscow itself forced Putin to scale down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, normally an enormous show of military strength and regime support.
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Putin has sought to show the tide by sharply increasing attacks on Ukraine, including an enormous overnight barrage Friday that saw a Russian drone veer off beam and strike an apartment constructing in Romania — a NATO ally — near the Ukrainian border, injuring two people.
Ukraine has said it’s preparing for more attacks, including on Kyiv, where the Kremlin warned foreign diplomats to evacuate this week.
“I believe that (warning) goes to be a vital piece of evidence, frankly, for a future tribunal where Putin and his henchmen will in the future find themselves sitting within the stocks and being held accountable for all of the horrendous crimes that they’ve committed, including throughout the course of this war,” Kara-Murza said.
The Levada poll was released ahead of parliamentary elections in September, where the Kremlin is once more moving to maintain antiwar voices off the ballot by targeting leading members of Russia’s sole remaining opposition party, Yabloko, with administrative and criminal charges — including personal friends of Kara-Murza.
“The most effective solution to assess the situation (in Russia) is definitely by the behaviour of the regime,” he said. “And we see that the Kremlin is incredibly afraid of allowing even probably the most cautious, probably the most moderate antiwar voices on the ballot in Russia at any level.”
While those efforts may achieve success, he added, “What’s becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin is to take care of that pretense, each for domestic and for international audiences, that Putin’s war in Ukraine is overwhelmingly supported by the Russian public. It’s increasingly evident to everybody that that claim is solely false.”
Kara-Murza said he not only hopes but is confident that he’ll soon have the option to return from exile to his home country and witness the autumn of the Putin regime and the return of democracy to Russia.
He said the democratic opposition should start preparing now for that transition.
“We all know from Russian history that major political changes in our country often occur … swiftly, suddenly, and completely unexpectedly,” he said.
“We’ve no right to squander the subsequent opportunity for democratic transition in Russia, the way in which that chance was squandered back within the Nineteen Nineties. This model of change could are available in three years, it could are available in two weeks, but what we do know is that when that window of change opens, it’ll be very transient.”
Bill Browder, a financier and activist for tougher sanctions regimes who testified alongside Kara-Murza at Thursday’s House of Commons foreign affairs committee, told Global News in an interview Thursday that the Russian people can be searching for latest leaders if and when the Putin regime falls.
Opposition figures like Kara-Murza “are the individuals who could probably step in,” he said.
“What I’ve learned about Vladimir and about other members of the Russian opposition is that the quantity of sacrifice they’re willing to make to attempt to bring normalcy to their country is superhuman,” Browder said.
“It’s a really dangerous place to be against Vladimir Putin. But in actual fact, the more he reacts to it, the more you recognize that he’s on the ropes.”
Kara-Murza and Browder are calling on Parliament to pass laws that, amongst other measures, would add transnational repression as a sanctionable offence under Canadian law and require annual government reports that list “prisoners of conscience” held by foreign states.
Kara-Murza told Global News the law would send a strong message to regimes like Putin’s and needs to be a part of a renewed international push to pressure the Kremlin towards negotiations to finish the Ukraine war.
“Aggressors don’t stop until and unless they’re stopped, and it’s high time that the free world stops Vladimir Putin,” he said.
“For so long as Russia stays a dictatorship, it’ll all the time be a threat not only to our own people, but in addition to everybody outside. … The one real solution to ensure long-term peace, stability and security in Europe and on the planet at large is to have Russia grow to be a standard, civilized, democratic nation.”
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