Iran and america are trumpeting their tentative agreement aimed toward ending their war as a victory. But thus far there is no such thing as a word on what’s actually in it.
The memorandum of understanding, brokered mainly by Pakistan, starts with the simultaneous lifting of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports, based on Pakistani officials. The 2 sides will then begin 60 days of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and the potential lifting of sanctions, they told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity since the text is being kept confidential.
That may leave the adversaries roughly where they where they were 3 1/2 months ago — before Israel and the U.S. on Feb. 28 launched their war on Iran, which has left hundreds dead across the region, triggered a worldwide energy crisis and shook the American economy with an inflation surge.
Much stays unknown, including whether the deal says anything about Iran’s missile program or support for its regional allies like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, two issues that the U.S. and Israel cited to justify the war. One other major query is the way it addresses Lebanon: Israel and Hezbollah aren’t parties to the deal, and their fighting could blow up the arrangement.
Here’s what to know:
The deal would get the oil flowing again
Once the deal is signed — expected on Friday — the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the U.S. will lift its blockade, U.S. President Donald Trump said. The announcement triggered a drop in oil prices and a surge in stock markets. Trump said Iran wouldn’t charge a toll for passage of ships — a requirement made by Tehran — suggesting that the deal restores the prewar established order.
Iran’s closure on the strait, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies must pass to succeed in markets, proved perhaps its strongest weapon. It drove up fuel prices, made food and other basics like fertilizer dearer well beyond the region and helped push inflation within the U.S. as much as 4% ahead of midterm elections later this yr.
The U.S. blockade, imposed after an initial ceasefire was reached on April 7, cut off the billions Iran earned from oil exports and further crippled an economy that was hit hard by the war.
Iran and US return to negotiations
The 60-day period of negotiations may be prolonged if there’s progress, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday.
What will not be known is whether or not the brand new agreement puts the 2 sides any closer than they were in negotiations months ago, when the U.S. and Israel launched their surprise attack on Iran.
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The U.S. and Israel fear Iran’s nuclear program could lead on to an atomic weapon, a essential reason their leaders cited for going to war. Tehran has insisted its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes.
Central to U.S. demands is the removal or dilution of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. Iran up to now resisted U.S. terms over the stockpile, and a significant query can be whether the text of the agreement explicitly commits Iran to eliminating it. Iran developed the stockpile after Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled out of the 2015 deal that had put limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions and unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, moves vital to resuscitating its economy. The Pakistani officials said the deal outlines a phased process for relieving sanctions and releasing frozen assets, tied to progress within the talks.
The Trump administration has said its goals within the war were to “obliterate” Iran’s missile arsenal and “sever its support” for proxies across the region, as well “annihilate its navy” and ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.
The seven weeks of U.S.-Israeli bombardment are believed to have heavily damaged Iran’s missile arsenal and production facilities in addition to other parts of its military. How heavily will not be known, and Iran has continued to fireplace missiles and perform drone strikes. Few analysts think Iran cannot rebuild its capabilities.
Iran’s ties with its allies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq — appear strong as ever. There was no indication that the deal addresses either the missile program or support for proxies, though a final text when it emerges could show otherwise.
The air campaign also inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s economy. Nevertheless, Iran’s leadership has emerged from the war seemingly bolder.
It survived essentially the most serious attempt ever by Israel and america to topple the Islamic Republic, with their thundering opening volleys of the war that killed Iran’s supreme leader and far of the highest political and military echelons.
Iran demonstrated its ability to retaliate against the worldwide economy by shutting down the strait and by hitting U.S. Arab allies within the Gulf. The effectiveness of that weapon boosted Iran’s confidence that Trump won’t return to the military option.
War in Lebanon could threaten the deal
The potential obstacle to the agreement is Lebanon, where any spiral within the conflict has the potential to pull in Iran.
Iran has insisted that any deal must also include a ceasefire in Lebanon. After the agreement was announced, the primary Israeli response got here from its defense minister, Israel Katz, who said Israel won’t withdraw from the massive swath of southern Lebanon seized over the past months.
Hezbollah in an announcement praised the deal and said it was committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved.”
Nonetheless, a U.S. official said the deal didn’t call for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and that Israel had a right to answer Hezbollah attacks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to debate outlines of the agreement.
Israel’s Netanyahu has been weakened
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted of unprecedented “shoulder to shoulder” cooperation with the U.S. on the outset of the war, launched in a joint operation between the 2 close allies.
But since then, Trump and Netanyahu have been at odds — with the president wanting to end a war that’s deeply unpopular with the American public and Netanyahu wanting to press ahead to appreciate his more ambitious goals.
Netanyahu was largely sidelined in the course of the ceasefire talks and appears to have lost support amongst members of the Republican Party. The emerging ceasefire has also come under heavy criticism in Israel, each from opposition leaders and even members of his governing coalition.
That might bode poorly for the veteran Israeli leader, who faces reelection this fall.
Associated Press writers Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Michelle L. Price and Will Weissert in Washington contributed to this report.