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UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Leon Shahbazyan and Levan Chokheli within the welterweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Shahbazyan-Chokheli prediction and pick.
Leon Shahbazyan (12-4) rides in on a four-fight win streak, most recently submitting Robert Hale by first-round armbar in March after choking out Gláucio Eliziário in 43 seconds last September, with all 4 recent wins coming by submission, now as he comes into his fight this weekend against Levan Chokheli.
Levan Chokheli (14-3, 1 NC) enters off a second-round TKO over Alexandre Goncalves in May 2025, bouncing back from a first-round knockout loss to Lorenz Larkin in September 2024 after earlier Bellator wins over Sabah Homasi and Michael Lombardo, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Leon Shahbazyan.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Leon Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Odds
Leon Shahbazyan: +295
Levan Chokheli: -375
Over 1.5 rounds: +154
Under 1.5 rounds: -200
Why Leon Shahbazyan Will Win
Leon Shahbazyan enters this fight because the more well-rounded threat, and his submission game alone needs to be enough to present Chokheli serious problems on the bottom. With 11 of his 12 wins coming by means of tapout, Leon is a ending machine who knows the best way to impose his will once the fight hits the mat.
At 6’4″ with a 74.5-inch reach, Shahbazyan also holds a meaningful size advantage over the 6’0″ Chokheli, and in a welterweight bout, that length creates real problems at range. Leon can use that frame to regulate distance, neutralize Chokheli’s boxing, and drag the fight into the grappling exchanges where he thrives.
Chokheli is a dangerous striker with 11 KO wins, but he carries a glaring zero submission victories on his record, meaning his ground game stays an unproven commodity at this level. The second the fight goes to the ground, Chokheli is firmly in Shahbazyan territory.
Leon has also shown the flexibility to complete fights in all three rounds, demonstrating cardio and composure under pressure. Chokheli, against this, was stopped cold by Lorenz Larkin, showing he will be hurt and finished when pushed. Consider Leon’s Tuff-N-Uff submission run leading into this UFC debut, and the momentum clearly favors Shahbazyan on fight night.
Why Levan Chokheli Will Win
evan Chokheli is one of the vital dangerous one-punch finishers within the welterweight division, and his 11 KO wins, with 10 of them coming in the primary round, make him a walking nightmare for anyone willing to face and trade with him. Leon Shahbazyan likes to get the fight to the bottom, but to do this, he has to survive the striking phase first.
Chokheli’s KO power is legitimate at every level, having even earned a KO of the 12 months contender at Bellator 299 with a surprising front kick finish. If Leon reaches for that takedown, he’s walking directly into that right hand — and Chokheli has shown he can time entries beautifully.
Leon’s striking defense is a legitimate concern, sitting at just 32% strike defense in line with UFC stats. Chokheli is precisely the sort of explosive puncher who can exploit that gap early and sometimes.
Shahbazyan has also been finished by KO twice in his profession, including a first-round stoppage by the hands of Ryan Loder, proving his chin will not be untouchable. Chokheli has seven wins in under a minute, if Leon is even barely hesitant, this fight could end in seconds.
With a year-plus of inactivity and his UFC debut jitters in play, Chokheli’s ferocious pressure and first-round ending ability give him a really real path to a press release victory on fight night.
Final Leom Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Prediction & Pick
Levan Chokheli walks into his UFC debut with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, and that dangerous energy makes him a threat from the opening bell. Leon Shahbazyan will look to pull this fight to the mat early, but getting past Chokheli’s explosive striking without eating a clean shot is less complicated said than done.
Chokheli’s first-round ending rate is elite, and the moment Shahbazyan commits to a telegraphed takedown attempt, the Georgian slugger will probably be able to time it with a counter that would end the night immediately. Leon’s chin has been tested before, and Chokheli carries the form of pop that may turn the lights out on any fighter within the division.
Expect Chokheli to pressure early, cut off the cage, and unleash his power boxing to maintain Leon on the back foot. The dimensions drawback won’t matter if Shahbazyan is simply too rattled to shoot.
Final Leon Shahbazyan-Levan Chokheli Prediction & Pick: Levan Chokheli (-375), Under 1.5 Rounds (-200)
UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Leon Shahbazyan and Levan Chokheli within the welterweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Shahbazyan-Chokheli prediction and pick.