While the federal government has yet to sort out what it’s doing with its order for a full fleet of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, it’s already looking to the next big thing.
Ottawa is widely expected to announce Tuesday it’s going to join a sixth-generation fighter jet program run by the U.K., Japan and Italy — not as a participant but as an observer with access to internal information.
Defence Minister David McGuinty, currently within the U.K. for a significant international air show, has said the federal government is fascinated with learning more concerning the Global Combat Air Program.
The three countries launched the Global Combat Air Program to replace Japan’s F-2 jets and the Eurofighter Typhoons utilized by the U.K. and Italy.
It’s still very early days and it’s not clear yet whether Canada has a viable path to participating within the fighter jet program in a way that gets domestic industry involved.
“It’s still very conceptual,” said Philippe Lagassé, a professor on the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.
“Research has begun on it. The viability just isn’t yet clear. The importance of it just isn’t yet clear. You’ll have loads of critics who will argue we must be abandoning traditional fighters altogether. There’s loads of things to iron out and a few uncertainty … but that is normal for a project like this.”
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David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said there are loads of unanswered questions on how Canada could get entangled and whether there’s an entry fee.
But gaining observer status could help crystallize the federal government’s pondering on future involvement within the program, he said.
“I feel it is sensible for us, at a minimum, to go kick the tires after which see whether or not if it looks prefer it’s a great initiative to be a component of more seriously,” he said.
Boeing within the U.S. is manufacturing the F-47, a next-generation twin-engined fighter to replace the U.S. air force’s F-22 Raptor. Those have an estimated cost of about US$300 million per aircraft — rather more expensive than the F-35s.
Daniel Norton, senior management systems analyst on the RAND Corporation think tank, said the U.S. won’t want to export the technology and it may very well be “cost-prohibitive for smaller air forces just like the RCAF.”
The Global Combat Air Program, he said, “could also be inexpensive and offer a greater likelihood for Canadian firms to develop into involved in development and production.”
“On the very least, the specter of participation could provide some leverage in negotiations with other contractors,” he added.
Canada’s plan to purchase a fleet of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets has been under a federal review for greater than a yr.
Prime Minister Mark Carney put the total order of 88 jets under review in March 2025 in response to the continuing trade war began by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow on the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said the Global Combat Air Program has suffered internal tensions and it’s not clear where the program shall be a number of years down the road.
The U.K. had dragged its heels for nearly a yr on committing to financing, while Japan has pushed for a faster pace.
Shimooka pointed on the market’s an alternative choice for Canada: joining the U.S. navy’s sixth-generation project, the F/A-XX.
Canada could still seek to join that when the political dynamics change between Ottawa and Washington, he said.
“Canadian industries are very effectively aligned with U.S. industry,” he said.
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