By Alexandria Grace C. Magno, Reporter
INVESTORS will look beyond latest policy guarantees in President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, with analysts saying the stock market’s longer-term direction will hinge on whether the administration can deliver concrete, time-bound reforms through the remainder of its term.
While the address could provide a short-term boost to investor sentiment, analysts said financial markets are prone to give attention to policy execution, regulatory consistency, and the federal government’s ability to translate commitments into laws, budgets, and accomplished projects.
China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said the SONA should move beyond broad economic goals and discover specific reforms that will support growth.
“The SONA presents a possibility to articulate a transparent and actionable economic agenda. Beyond setting the vision, it should discover the particular policies and reforms that can drive growth, tame inflation, and improve governance,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Colet said priorities should include accelerating high-impact infrastructure spending, lowering electricity costs, strengthening food production and provide chains, and constructing a globally competitive mining and minerals processing industry.
“Should the President deliver a powerful and credible economic reform message, domestic financial markets are prone to react favorably, with the stock market potentially attempting to regain the 6,400 level within the near term,” he added.
Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce echoed the view, saying investors generally distinguish between policy announcements and programs that may realistically be implemented before the top of the administration’s term.
“The SONA by itself is unlikely to trigger a long-lasting revaluation of the Philippine equity market. Political speeches can generate a brief sentiment boost, particularly after they contain business-friendly announcements, but equity investors generally distinguish between policy declarations and executable programs,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Arce said markets could respond positively if the address lays out a transparent economic direction, but any gains are prone to be short-lived unless Congress, implementing agencies, and regulators follow through.
“The more necessary market signal might be whether the federal government can maintain policy continuity, avoid disruptive regulatory changes, and show that its priority reforms have realistic legislative and financing pathways,” he said.
He said investors are expected to guage the SONA on a sector-by-sector basis, with infrastructure, banking, property, utilities, renewable energy, and consumer stocks likely to reply to announcements backed by credible implementation plans.
Areas expected to attract particular attention include infrastructure delivery, public-private partnerships (PPPs), energy security, food supply, fiscal discipline, capital market reforms, and regulatory consistency.
Mr. Arce said investors would also look ahead to measures that would negatively affect individual industries.
“The risks would even be sector-specific, particularly if the address includes price controls, latest taxes, tighter industry regulation or mandates that raise operating costs without adequate transition periods,” he added.
Investment & Capital Corp. of the Philippines President and Chief Operating Officer Jesus Mariano P. Ocampo said investors are also looking for stronger signs that the administration stays committed to governance reforms, particularly its anti-corruption campaign.
“On the SONA, a ‘wish’ message from the President is basically his stance on addressing the corruption issue. That was his most important theme last time — and seems nothing has really happened yet,” he said in a Viber message.
“So investors need to know if this continues to be something he’s going after.”
Mr. Ocampo also said investors want clearer plans for managing inflation risks arising from geopolitical tensions while preserving a stable policy environment.
“From an equity markets perspective — the President also needs to be clear on a few matters — addressing inflation given the Iran situation and its impact on fuel price and exchange rates, and ensuring the foundations of the sport don’t change,” he said.
Mr. Arce said foreign investors remain focused on policy credibility quite than headline growth targets.
“For foreign investors, probably the most consequential issue is prone to be policy credibility quite than headline growth targets… This means that international investors aren’t merely asking for added incentives; they’re in search of regulatory predictability, efficient institutions, and confidence that rules might be applied consistently across administrations and industries,” he said.
He said a positive reception to the SONA could initially improve sentiment, but foreign investors are prone to wait for evidence that the reforms are being implemented.
The federal government’s anti-corruption campaign last 12 months weighed on economic growth, while controversy surrounding allegedly anomalous flood control projects dampened consumer and investor sentiment, contributing to weakness within the stock market.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 2025 at 6,052.92, down 7.29%, or 475.87 points, from its end-2024 close of 6,528.79.
“The important thing distinction is between announcement value and implementation value. Local equities could react positively to credible policy signals immediately after the speech, but foreign investors usually tend to wait for subsequent laws, budget alignment and measurable agency motion,” Mr. Arce said.
“The strongest consequence for the market would subsequently not be the most important variety of guarantees, but a focused and achievable agenda that demonstrates the administration can complete necessary economic reforms before the top of its term.”