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UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the principal card with a fight between Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin within the middleweight division. Check out our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Todorovic-Valentin prediction and pick.
Dusko Todorovic (13-6) returns to the Octagon on home soil after snapping a year-long layoff, following a knee injury that forced him out of a scheduled March bout. He’s coming off a first-round submission win over José Daniel Medina last September, and a win here would push him to 14-6 as he comes into this fight this weekend against Robert Valentin.
Robert Valentin (12-6-0, 1 NC) comes into UFC Belgrade having snapped a two-fight skid with a slick first-round rear-naked choke submission of Julien Leblanc this past April. That win followed a first-round KO loss to Ateba Gautier, showing the boom-or-bust nature that defines his profession, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Dusko Todorovic.
UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Belgrade Odds: Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Odds
Dusko Todorovic: +136
Robert Valentin: -162
Over 1.5 rounds: +100
Under 1.5 rounds: -130
Why Dusko Todorovic Will Win
Dusko Todorovic must have a transparent path to victory over Robert Valentin at UFC Belgrade, fighting in front of his home Serbian crowd with legitimate motivation. Todorovic’s finish rate sits at a staggering 92% across his UFC profession, and his recent submission win over José Daniel Medina shows his grappling stays sharp after a yr away from the cage.
Valentin, meanwhile, has lost three of his last 4 fights, including three separate first-round finishes, revealing a concerning pattern of early vulnerability that Todorovic’s clinch-heavy Muay Thai style is perfectly suited to take advantage of. His striking defense sits at just 33%, a number that ought to worry anyone facing a finisher of Todorovic’s caliber.
Todorovic’s average fight time of just 7:41 across his UFC profession shows he consistently gets fights over with quickly, and analytics models actually project him because the almost certainly winner via second-round KO/TKO through accumulating clinch damage. That style matches up poorly against Valentin’s below-average takedown defense and history of getting hurt early.
Given the home-crowd energy, Todorovic’s superior ending rate, and Valentin’s exposed defensive holes, search for the Serbian to shut the show inside two rounds and improve to 14-6.
Why Robert Valentin Will Win
Robert Valentin has an actual opportunity to spoil Dusko Todorovic’s homecoming at UFC Belgrade if he can capitalize on his opponent’s long layoff. Todorovic hasn’t fought in nearly a yr after a knee injury derailed a scheduled March return, and ring rust against a live finisher like Valentin could be a dangerous combination.
Valentin’s submission game is genuinely elite, with eight of his 11 profession wins coming by tapout, including his most up-to-date rear-naked choke finish of Julien Leblanc. If he can get this fight to the mat early, he has real path to take advantage of a Todorovic who has been finished by strikes in three of his last five outings.
Todorovic’s own durability is a legitimate concern, having been knocked out in the primary round by each Mansur Abdul-Malik and Christian Leroy Duncan lately. That type of chin history suggests Valentin’s underrated power, three knockouts on his ledger, could also discover a home if the grappling exchanges break down.
Given Todorović’s ring rust after a serious knee injury and Valentin’s dangerous, finish-heavy skill set, the Swiss middleweight has a legitimate case to spring the upset and snap his own recent skid in Belgrade.
Final Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick
Robert Valentin’s path to victory over Dusko Todorovic runs through the grappling exchanges, where his elite submission game gives him a real edge. Eight of his 11 profession wins have come by tapout, and his recent rear-naked choke finish of Julien Leblanc shows that skill set stays sharp.
Todorovic’s year-long layoff following a serious knee injury raises real questions on ring rust, especially against an opponent who thrives on quick, opportunistic finishes. Valentin’s underrated power, three profession knockouts, also gives him a puncher’s probability if Todorovic’s chin shows the identical cracks that permit each Mansur Abdul-Malik and Christian Leroy Duncan finish him early.
Expect Valentin to search for takedowns and transitions early, using his length and grappling craft to pull this into unfamiliar territory for a rusty Todorovic. Search for Valentin to lock up a submission within the second round, spoiling the Serbian’s homecoming and snapping his own recent skid in Belgrade.
Final Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick: Robert Valentin (-162); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-130)
UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the principal card with a fight between Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin within the middleweight division. Take a look at our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Todorovic-Valentin prediction and pick. Dusko Todorovic (13-6) returns to the Octagon on home soil after snapping a year-long layoff, following a knee injury that forced him out of a scheduled March bout.