Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura prediction, odds, pick for UFC Belgrade

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez is live from Belgrade, Serbia as we present one other prediction and pick for this upcoming Heavyweight Division tilt. Serbia’s own Aleksandar Rakic will proceed trying his hand in a brand new division against Poland’s No. 12-ranked Marcin Tybura. Check our UFC Belgrade odds series for the Rakic-Tybura prediction and pick.

Aleksandar Rakic (14-6) comes into this bout with a 6-5 record contained in the UFC since 2017. He’s currently riding a four-fight losing streak and can make his first appearance at heavyweight following a knockout loss to Azamat Murzakanov his last trip. Rakic stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.

Marcin Tybura (27-11) has gone 14-10 in a decade with the UFC, most recently falling to Tyrell Fortune via unanimous decision back in March 2026. It marked his second-straight loss after he posted consecutive wins, seeking to retain his No. 12 rating against a newcomer to the division. Tybura stands 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach.

UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Belgrade Odds: Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Odds

Aleksandar Rakic: -355

Marcin Tybura: +280

Over 1.5 rounds: -220

Under 1.5 rounds: +170

Why Aleksandar Rakic Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Azamat Murzakanov – KO (jab, R1)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Aleksandar Rakic bumped into yet one more brick wall in Murzakanov as he was stopped with the straight jab down the center that sat him down. Rakic has now dropped 4 consecutive fights dating back to 2021, all stemming from his leg injury against Jan Blachowicz in 2022. He’s hoping that this move to heavyweight can breathe recent life into his profession and it will be interesting to see how his recent frame fares against greater opponents.

Rakic will actually be the marginally taller man here and retains more of his power not having to make the 205-pound limit. A key stat to have a look at can be Rakic’s 85% profession takedown defense rate. Marcin Tybura makes a living off tying his opponents up and quickly taking position on the bottom, but Rakic doesn’t appear to be the sort to spend an excessive amount of time fighting off his back on this one.

Expect a kickboxing bout for essentially the most part as Rakic can have to be continually aware of the low leg kicks. They have been a theme in his previous fights and he could possibly be on the correct side of them if he takes advantage of Tybura’s relaxed striking stance. Either way, Rakic can have to be defensive in his nature in avoiding one other disappointing finish.

Why Marcin Tybura Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Tyrell Fortune – U DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 8 SUB

Marcin Tybura was bested on the scorecards his last trip against Tyrell Fortune despite leading the entire significant strikes 85-49. Tybura did, nonetheless, allow Fortune three of 5 takedowns and serious control time on the bottom which ultimately led to the loss. He’ll be coping with a rather more seasoned striker in Rakic, but it surely could favor him knowing he’ll have a probability to display his striking arsenal to full effect.

At 40 years old, Tybura still feels a draw to compete at this level and given his former experience as a world kickboxing champ, this could possibly be a fight where he turns back the clock and comes out with a vintage performance. It’ll take quick bursts of speed and sharp head movement, something Tybura remains to be able to, for him to outsmart Rakic on the feet and earn the knockout victory.

Still, it’s value noting that three of Tybura’s last five wins have come by the use of decision as he favors a drawn-out battle on the feet. He could achieve this against Rakic if he is not too eager in shooting for a takedown and potentially putting himself in a foul spot.

Final Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Prediction & Pick

Marcin Tybura will offer a powerful challenge to Aleksandar Rakic during his heavyweight debut and it will be interesting to see what type of weight Rakic puts onto his frame ahead of this fight. Tybura remains to be on the smaller side of the heavyweight scale and Rakic should match him well by way of power.

Tybura should offer a competitive look in the primary round and I do not expect this fight to complete early. Recent opponents have struggled to get Tybura out of there quickly and we should always expect a more measured approach out of Rakic considering he’s attempting to avoid a fifth-straight loss.

Still, this looks as if an ideal redemption arc for Rakic as he posses a tricky matchup on the feet for Tybura along with his reach and activity with the leg kicks. If his striking is crisp and on point, he should have the ability to deal with Tybura within the later rounds. Moreover, appearing in front of his home country fans should give him an added boost in grinding out a tricky win against a fellow veteran.

Final Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Prediction & Pick: Aleksandar Rakic (-355); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-220)