A key step to achieving climate neutrality within the European Union is to rapidly shift from fossil fuels to electric technologies powered by renewable energies, a brand new study shows. At the identical time, hydrogen produced from electricity may even be indispensable in hard-to-electrify sectors reminiscent of aviation, shipping and chemicals. By 2050, electrification and hydrogen are the important thing strategies to achieve climate neutrality based on renewable power. Future EU transformation scenarios modeled by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK investigate the roles of electrification and hydrogen and find that shares of 42-60% for electricity and 9-26% for hydrogen-based energy are required in total energy consumption by 2050.
“Previous research has shown that our power system might be transformed to renewable sources like wind and solar at low price and low environmental impact. Nonetheless, the following query is how this renewable electricity might be used to substitute fossil fuel use within the buildings, industry and transport sectors. Our evaluation shows that the direct use of electricity, for instance, via electric cars and warmth pumps, is critical for a broad range of sectors, while the conversion of electricity to hydrogen is essential just for few applications,” says Felix Schreyer, PIK scientist and lead creator of the study.
The study, published in ‘One Earth’, is the primary to analyse the interplay of electrification and hydrogen in EU climate neutrality scenarios at greater sectoral detail. The evaluation shows higher potentials for electrification and identifies a more confined deployment range for hydrogen-based energy than earlier studies. Using the energy-economy model REMIND, PIK-scientists investigated plausible combos of each strategies in EU energy system transformation pathways under different scenario assumptions. They found that, across scenarios, direct electrification is the dominant strategy for passenger cars and low-temperature heating in buildings and industry, while hydrogen and artificial fuels produced from electricity are needed primarily for aviation, shipping, the chemical industry and as electricity storage. Hence, electrification and hydrogen are largely complementary, while they compete for a small share of only about 15% of ultimate energy. These uncertain segments include sectors like truck transport and high-temperature industrial process heat.
Three cornerstones for a successful transformation: Advancing the expansion of renewables, removing obstacles and providing incentives
“Ramping up renewable electricity supply and switching to electric technologies wherever possible is by far the fastest and most cost-effective way of eliminating carbon emissions in most sectors. We subsequently expect the share of electricity in final energy to extend from 20% to 42-60%,” says co-author Gunnar Luderer, leader of the Energy Systems Group at PIK. It is because electric technologies are increasingly available and use electricity very efficiently, while the conversion to hydrogen and artificial fuels and their combustion include significant energy losses. Overall, EU electricity demand increases across their scenarios by 80-160% in 2050 depending on the quantity of hydrogen imports and the role of electrification and hydrogen in uncertain sectors. Which means around twice as much power as today could have to be produced by then.
The authors also discuss the present state of EU policy almost about electrification and hydrogen and description three critical cornerstones for a successful transformation: Policy-making should 1) prioritise electrification and hydrogen respectively in sectors where they’re preferred across all scenarios, 2) remove barriers to renewable power expansion and three) incentivize the scale-up of hydrogen supply chains.
“Our study highlights that policymakers should respect different sectoral roles of each strategies: By promoting electrification via electric applications for road transport and heating while prioritising hydrogen and artificial fuels for applications where they’re indispensable,” says PIK scientist and co-author Falko Ueckerdt.
