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UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the prelims with a fight between Mitch Raposo and Allan Nascimento within the flyweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Raposo-Nascimento prediction and pick.
Mitch Raposo (10-3) enters the octagon trying to construct on his recently acquired momentum. After dropping two razor-thin split decisions to start his UFC profession, he finally broke through with a unanimous decision victory over Azat Maksum, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Allan Nascimento.
Allan Nascimento (22-6) brings a four-fight win streak into the octagon. Following a hard-fought decision win over Jafel Filho, the Brazilian grappling ace recently secured a slick second-round anaconda choke against Cody Durden, carrying massive momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mitch Raposo.
UFC Winnipeg Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Winnipeg Odds: Mitch Raposo-Allan Nascimento Odds
Mitch Raposo: +160
Allan Nascimento: -192
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
Why Mitch Raposo Will Win
Mitch Raposo has a highly strategic path to upset the veteran Allan Nascimento this weekend by utilizing his superior footwork and wrestling base to dictate exactly where this fight takes place. While the Brazilian is a large threat on the canvas, Raposo’s defensive wrestling and constant lateral movement should effectively neutralize those extremely dangerous grappling entries.
By continually switching stances and strictly managing distance, Raposo can force Nascimento right into a frustrating kickboxing match where the American’s clear speed advantage becomes apparent. The important thing to victory lies in Raposo defensively sprawling against Nascimento’s takedowns and immediately punishing him with crisp counter strikes before safely resetting his position.
Nascimento relies heavily on securing dominant top control, but his low takedown accuracy indicates he struggles to ground opponents who refuse to stay a stationary goal. Raposo must perfectly adhere to his game plan, avoiding the middle cage clinch in any respect costs while utilizing his excellent cardio to keep up a really high pace.
If Raposo consistently keeps his back well off the fence and forces the Chute Boxe fighter to aggressively chase him, he’ll comfortably outpoint his opponent. Expect the Latest England prospect to secure a choice victory by outstriking a fading Nascimento.
Why Allan Nascimento Will Win
Allan Nascimento presents an absolute nightmare stylistic matchup for Mitch Raposo, bringing a level of world-class jiu-jitsu that the young American has simply never encountered. The Brazilian veteran possesses a suffocating top game and an incredibly diverse submission arsenal that may quickly neutralize Raposo’s striking benefits once the fight hits the mat.
Training out of the legendary Chute Boxe Diego Lima academy, Nascimento seamlessly blends aggressive Muay Thai pressure together with his elite grappling entries. This constant forward pressure will effectively trap Raposo against the cage, severely limiting the lateral movement he desperately must survive.
While Raposo recently secured his first UFC victory, he still occasionally leaves himself exposed during chaotic scrambles and defensive transitions. Nascimento is an absolute master at capitalizing on these split-second mistakes, continually trying to find fight-ending chokes from each dominant and disadvantageous positions.
Once Nascimento inevitably drags this contest into deep waters on the canvas, his heavy positional control will rapidly drain Raposo’s cardio. The sheer discrepancy in high-level grappling experience will change into glaringly obvious because the Brazilian effortlessly strings together submission attempts.
Expect Nascimento to utterly dominate the grappling exchanges, completely dictating the pace and site of the fight from the opening bell. The Brazilian should comfortably extend his impressive winning streak by securing a slick submission finish before the ultimate horn sounds.
Final Mitch Raposo-Allan Nascimento Prediction & Pick
The flyweight showdown between Mitch Raposo and Allan Nascimento presents a classic dynamic with massive stakes for the division. While Raposo recently secured his first promotional victory, he faces a big step up in competition against the surging Brazilian veteran.
Nascimento enters the octagon riding a powerful four-fight win streak, showcasing a level of suffocating jiu-jitsu that few flyweights can successfully navigate. His elite ability to chain submission attempts will immediately test Raposo’s defensive wrestling and overall composure under heavy pressure.
The American desperately must utilize his lateral movement to maintain the fight entirely on the feet and avoid the middle clinch. Nonetheless, Nascimento’s relentless forward pressure and underrated Muay Thai strikes will inevitably back Raposo against the fence.
Once this matchup hits the canvas, the sheer discrepancy in high-level grappling experience will change into the defining factor of the competition. Raposo is incredibly tough, but surviving prolonged ground exchanges with a Chute Boxe black belt is a virtually unattainable task.
Expect the Brazilian to systematically break down the American’s defenses, chaining positional advancements until a fight-ending opening presents itself. Allan Nascimento gets the second-round submission victory, further solidifying his dangerous status inside the flyweight ranks.
Final Mitch Raposo-Allan Nascimento Prediction & Pick: Allan Nascimento (-192), Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the prelims with a fight between Mitch Raposo and Allan Nascimento within the flyweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Raposo-Nascimento prediction and pick. Mitch Raposo (10-3) enters the octagon trying to construct on his recently acquired momentum.