Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 116

We’re back with one other betting prediction and pick for the UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal Essential Card, this next bout going down within the Lightweight (155) Division. Mexico’s own Rafa Garcia will tackle factoryX Muay Thai’s Alexander Hernandez in a near-even bout. Check our UFC odds series for the Garcia-Hernandez prediction and pick.

Rafa Garcia (18-4) has gone 6-4 contained in the UFC since debuting in 2021. Winning 4 of his last five bouts, he’s coming in following back-to-back victories over veterans Vinc Pichel (U DEC) and Jared Gordon (TKO). He comes into this scrap the short underdog in search of a possible rating if he can beat his hardest opponent yet. Garcia stands 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach.

Alexander Hernandez (18-8) is 10-7 contained in the UFC since 2018, most recently putting away Diego Ferreira via strikes for his fourth-straight win. It is the longest winning streak of his UFC tenure and may also hope to interrupt through into the rankings for the primary time in his profession. Hernandez stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Rafa Garcia-Alexander Hernandez Odds

Rafa Garcia: +110

Alexander Hernandez: -130

Over 2.5 rounds: -238

Under 2.5 rounds: +180

Why Rafa Garcia Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Jared Gordon – TKO (elbows, R3)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 8 SUB

Facing an equally-dangerous opponent in Jared Gordon during his last outing, Rafa Garcia managed to capitalize on an enormous exchange in the course of the third round by putting Gordon away with elbows from top position on the bottom. It was Garcia’s first finish since 2022, winning three bouts by unanimous decision within the time between. This must be his hardest opponent to-date, but Garcia has shown time and time again that he should not be counted out because the underdog in any situation.

Garcia is available in as a measured striker and may have the slight edge in his striking defense (61%) opposite of Hernandez (59%). Garcia can be more energetic on the wrestling side of things, having a serious advantage together with his eight finishes on the bottom. While Hernandez has proven to be a robust defensive wrestler, Garcia could have a slight edge in chasing submissions throughout the scrambles and position reversals.

Still, Garcia should look to realize his advantage on the feet as Hernandez has been known to brawl his way into trouble before. If he’s in a position to slip under an enormous hook and take the back, it could open the door for Garcia to achieve success on this fight without having to have interaction in an all-out brawl against Hernandez.

Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Diego Ferreira – TKO (strikes, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Alexander Hernandez made quick work of Diego Ferreira his last trip after the same consequence against Chase Hooper in his prior bout. Continuously evolving as a mixed martial artist and making changes to his preparation, Hernandez has notched consecutive finishes for the primary time during this career-long streak of 4 wins. His confidence must be through the roof and he should are available in ready against a formidable opponent.

Hernandez has made a conscious effort to enhance his striking with each passing fight and it’s paying off for him as he’s finally looked as if it would get his own timing down in terms of his right hand. He’s extremely aggressive once his opponent is hurt and can rarely let a fight slip away from him when he’s making an effort to complete. This time around, he may very well be in for a full three rounds where he’ll must display his superior cardio once more.

The longer this fight drags on, the more it is going to profit Hernandez and his high striking pace. Garcia is understood for his chin and while Hernandez has the facility to knock an opponent out, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll catch Garcia easily on this one.

Final Rafa Garcia-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick

Each fighters are available in sporting nearly the identical statistics on the feet with Garcia coming in as the marginally more energetic wrestler. Each fighters are also on the same streak of success and must be ready for a three-round war where they each see moments of success and adversity.

Alexander Hernandez appears to be in a serious zone over these last 4 fights and it has been promising to see his wins grown increasingly more dominant each trip. He also hasn’t been dropped or seriously hurt during this recent stretch, so we’ve to place barely more confidence in his ability to resist a punch on this one.

For our final pick, we will roll with Alexander Hernandez to get the win in what must be a razor-thin three-round decision on the scorecards.

Final Rafa Garcia-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Alexander Hernandez (-130); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-238)