Gambling shouldn’t be offered on this website in any form.
UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland continues on the prelims with a fight between Joel Alvarez and Yaroslav Amosov within the welterweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Alvarez-Amosov prediction and pick.
Joel Alvarez (23-3) enters UFC 328 riding a four-fight winning streak and searching like a totally revamped fighter at welterweight. He TKO’d Drakkar Klose in the primary round in December 2024, then ground out a gritty unanimous decision over the highly regarded Vicente Luque in his 170-pound debut last October — proving he belongs at the upper weight class as he comes into his fight this weekend against Yaroslav Amosov.
Yaroslav Amosov (29-1) is one of the vital quietly dangerous welterweights on this planet, and his UFC debut couldn’t have gone higher. The previous Bellator champion finished veteran Neil Magny with an anaconda choke in only 3:14 of round one at UFC Fight Night in December 2025 — announcing his arrival to the promotion in emphatic fashion as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joel Alvarez.
UFC 328 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 328 Odds: Joel Alvarez-Yaroslav Amosov Odds
Joel Alvarez: +154
Yaroslav Amosov: -185
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
Why Joel Alvarez Will Win
Joel “El Fenomeno” Alvarez is a totally different fighter at welterweight, and his four-fight winning streak has shown a level of maturity, composure, and ending ability that makes him dangerous against anyone on the roster. His upset decision win over Vicente Luque — one of the vital battle-tested welterweights in UFC history — proved he belongs at this level.
Amosov is making only his second UFC appearance, and while his Bellator résumé is sterling, the jump from Bellator competition to a seasoned UFC veteran like Alvarez is a major one. The lights shine otherwise inside a UFC 328 arena, and Alvarez has navigated that pressure repeatedly.
Alvarez’s submission grappling is world-class, and Amosov’s only skilled loss got here by means of submission — meaning there’s a proven blueprint for beating “Dynamo” on the bottom. If Alvarez can drag the fight to the mat and work his guard, he has real ending potential.
Amosov’s UFC sample size can also be only one fight, meaning there are real unknowns about how he handles adversity, late-round pressure, and elite-level striking exchanges. Alvarez’s experience in those chaotic moments is a quiet but critical edge.
Why Yaroslav Amosov Will Win
Yaroslav “Dynamo” Amosov owns a 29-1 record for a reason — he’s one of the vital technically refined and well-rounded welterweights on the planet, combining elite wrestling, slick submissions, and underrated striking into an almost seamless package. His UFC debut demolition of Neil Magny in only over three minutes signaled that his Bellator dominance was no fluke.
Alvarez’s submission grappling is dangerous, but Amosov is a decorated Greco-Roman wrestler who has neutralized submission threats throughout his entire profession. Attempting to out-grapple “Dynamo” on the mat is considered one of the worst strategic decisions an opponent could make.
Alvarez’s four-fight winning streak, while impressive, includes opponents that pale as compared to the extent of competition Amosov dismantled during his historic Bellator title run. The step up at school from Luque to Amosov is considerable, and that gap will show on Saturday night.
Amosov’s ability to regulate pace, dictate where the fight takes place, and impose his will for 3 or five rounds makes him nearly unimaginable to gameplan against. Alvarez has heart and submission skills, but “Dynamo” has the whole lot.
Final Joel Alvarez-Yaroslav Amosov Prediction & Pick
This welterweight clash is a captivating matchup between two submission specialists who each carry real ending danger on the bottom. The query is not whether the fight hits the mat — it’s who controls it once it does.
Amosov’s Greco-Roman wrestling base and elite top control give him a structural advantage that Alvarez simply cannot match by way of raw grappling credentials. “Dynamo” will look to press Alvarez against the fence early and grind him into submission — literally.
Alvarez will make it scrappy and force Amosov into uncomfortable scrambles, but the previous Bellator champion has seen every grappling scenario possible across 30 skilled fights. His composure in chaos is considered one of his most underrated attributes.
Amosov’s UFC trajectory is pointing toward the highest of the welterweight division, and a dominant showing over Alvarez cements that path on Saturday night.
Final Joel Alvarez-Daniel Cormier Prediction & Pick: Yaroslav Amosov (-185), Over 1.5 Rounds (-210)
UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland continues on the prelims with a fight between Joel Alvarez and Yaroslav Amosov within the welterweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Alvarez-Amosov prediction and pick. Joel Alvarez (23-3) enters UFC 328 riding a four-fight winning streak and searching like a totally revamped fighter at welterweight.