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UFC Vegas 117: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa continues on the prelims with a fight between Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan in the sunshine heavyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Tokkos-Erslan prediction and pick.
Tuco Tokkos (11-5) finally broke through within the UFC, earning his first Octagon win with a clinical arm-triangle choke submission over Junior Tafa in July 2025, dominating with 7:51 of control time before sealing the finish in Round 2. Before that, he dropped a unanimous decision to Navajo Stirling in December 2024, dropping his UFC record to 0-2 before the Tafa redemption. Now riding momentum from that breakout submission win and looking out to construct his first UFC winning streak, Tokkos is available in as a dangerous grappling threat as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ivan Erslan.
Ivan Erslan (14-6) has struggled mightily since joining the UFC, going 0-3 contained in the Octagon. He dropped a unanimous decision to Navajo Stirling at UFC 315 in May 2025, then suffered a first-round rear-naked choke submission loss to Jimmy Crute in September 2025, extending his UFC losing skid to a few straight. Despite boasting 10 profession KO wins and 11 first-round finishes, Erslan is desperately searching for his first UFC victory as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tuco Tokkos.
UFC Vegas 117 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 117 Odds: Tuco Tokkos-Ivan Erslan Odds
Tuco Tokkos: +145
Ivan Erslan: -175
Over 2.5 rounds: +135
Under 2.5 rounds: -175
Why Tuco Tokkos Will Win
Tuco Tokkos enters this light heavyweight matchup because the more technically refined grappler, and his breakout submission win over Junior Tafa proved he has the tools to complete fights on the UFC level. Against an opponent like Erslan who has been submitted contained in the Octagon, Tokkos’s ground game represents a transparent and present danger from the opening bell.
Erslan is 0-3 within the UFC and has been finished in his most up-to-date outing — a pattern that raises serious questions on his ability to adapt and survive at this level. A fighter who has lost three straight contained in the Octagon carries real mental and physical baggage that a confident, momentum-riding Tokkos will probably be looking to use aggressively.
Tokkos also holds a major reach advantage that permits him to regulate distance on the feet before initiating his grappling attacks. With superior wrestling, submission hunting ability, and a fighter on the opposite side who hasn’t found answers contained in the UFC cage yet, Tokkos looks primed to earn his second straight Octagon victory this Saturday night.
Why Ivan Erslan Will Win
Ivan Erslan could also be 0-3 within the UFC, but his raw knockout power is the good equalizer in any light heavyweight matchup. With 10 profession KO wins and 11 first-round finishes on his resume, it only takes one clean shot to completely flip this fight on its head.
Tokkos’s UFC record sits at just 1-2, meaning his “momentum” is built on a skinny foundation of a single win over a mid-tier opponent in Junior Tafa. Erslan, despite his recent losses, has faced stiffer competition throughout his profession and brings a wealth of high-level experience that Tokkos simply hasn’t matched yet.
Desperation can also be a robust motivator, and a fighter staring down a fourth consecutive UFC loss has every reason to are available with maximum aggression and urgency. If Erslan can keep this fight standing, trust his power, and avoid getting taken down within the early rounds, his one-punch knockout ability makes him greater than able to shocking Tokkos and at last earning that elusive first UFC victory this Saturday.
Final Tuco Tokkos-Ivan Erslan Prediction & Pick
This light heavyweight clash is a textbook grappler vs. striker matchup, and the margin for error on either side is razor thin. One clean shot from Erslan ends the night, but one takedown from Tokkos may lead to a submission finish within the blink of an eye fixed.
Expect Tokkos to be cautious early, using his reach and footwork to establish his grappling entries while respecting Erslan’s one-punch knockout threat. Erslan will look to remain disciplined on the surface, land the massive right hand, and keep this fight firmly on the feet where his power gives him the clear advantage.
The important thing round is Round 1 — if Tokkos survives the early storm and gets this fight to the mat, his submission hunting ability takes over and Erslan’s path to victory narrows significantly. Tokkos’s superior grappling and up to date momentum give him the sting when the ultimate bell rings.
Ultimately, Tokkos grinds out a hard-fought unanimous decision, successfully neutralizing Erslan’s power and controlling the fight along with his wrestling and cage work.
Final Tuco Tokkos-Ivan Erslan Prediction & Pick: Tuco Tokkos (+145), Over 2.5 Rounds (+135)
UFC Vegas 117: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa continues on the prelims with a fight between Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan in the sunshine heavyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Tokkos-Erslan prediction and pick.