Luis Gurule vs. Daniel Barez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 117

The UFC is back in Las Vegas at The Apex as we’re back for one more betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout within the Flyweight (125) Division. Colorado’s Luis Gurule will tackle Daniel Barez of Spain in a highly-competitive matchup early into the fight card. Check our UFC odds series for the Gurule-Barez prediction and pick.

Luis Gurule (10-3) continues to be looking for his first UFC win with an 0-3 record since 2025. He dropped his last bout to Alden Coria via unanimous decision, making for his second-straight loss by decision as he hopes to bounce back the near-even betting favorite here. Gurule stands 5-foot-5 with a 64-inch reach.

Daniel Barez (17-7) has gone 1-2 contained in the UFC since 2023. Notching his first promotional win over Victor Altamirano, he fell to submission against Andre Lima his last day out and will likely be hoping to get back within the win column with a victory on this one. Barez stands 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 117 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 117 Odds: Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Odds

Luis Gurule: -142

Daniel Barez: +120

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Under 2.5 rounds: +150

Why Luis Gurule Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Alden Coria – U DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Luis Gurule continues to be trying to search out his footing within the UFC as he was stopped via strikes by Ode Osbourne during his debut and fell to unanimous decision during his last two fights. While he’s faced strong competition, he hasn’t been in a position to fully prove that he belongs on the roster and his full range of skills has yet to be displayed. Coming into this bout because the slight favorite against a manageable opponent might be his perfect opportunity to notch that elusive first win.

Gurule is a really aggressive striker and has no issues eating just a few punches when closing the gap and searching to get his own shots off. He blitzes opponents with big mixtures and when he’s in a position to land, can typically dish out some serious punishment together with his power. Nonetheless, he’ll still be needing to limit his damage as he’s absorbing 4.74 strikes per minute despite his 59% defensive rate.

Gurule is at his most dangerous when he’s in a position to hurt his opponent with the striking and follow-up together with his tremendous top pressure. He likes to search out closed guard and stack his opponents while landing big punches and elbows from over top, so expect him to be in an important position to complete this fight if he’s in a position to drop Barez and work on the bottom. His opponent still has six submission wins to his name, so Gurule may have to be cautious during his transitions on the bottom.

Why Daniel Barez Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Andre Lima – SUB (rear naked choke, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Daniel Barez put together considered one of his more lopsided showings his last day out, falling behind on the entire striking numbers 34-161 in a fight where he simply couldn’t gain any control. Barez may be very technically sound and fights very fundamentally, but his ability to shut the gap and control striking range could use some work against strikers more advanced than he’s. During this fight, Barez may have to ignore his last performance and are available out far more aggressive together with his offense this time around.

Barez does an important job of blending in his takedowns and threatening with the extent change, which could find him success throughout this fight as the higher grappler. His 80% takedown defense opposite of Gurule’s 58% takedown defense could suggest that Barez will likely be in position to dictate where this fight takes place. His opponent has never been submitted, nonetheless, so finding success on the feet might be his initial path to success on this one.

Barez will are available the marginally taller fighter with the longer reach, but that shouldn’t give him enough room to grow to be complacent in standing and striking against Gurule. Barez has been known to get off to slow starts and if he does so against the high pace of Gurule, he could fall behind on this fight by the later rounds.

Final Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick

This must be a fun fight given how close each side match up on the betting lines. Luis Gurule is hungry for his first UFC and will have his back against the wall on this one. Daniel Barez, however, is available in as the larger, longer fighter and will likely be seeking to dictate the pace each offensively and defensively together with his wrestling.

Nonetheless, I believe Luis Gurule is far more lively and in a fight where neither side is prone to knock the opposite out, this fight should head towards a call determined by whichever fighter was more lively. For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Luis Gurule to search out his first win within the UFC.

Final Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick: Luis Gurule (-142); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-195)