The war within the Middle East, which has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, has caused oil stockpiles on the planet’s largest economies to fall to their lowest levels since at the least 2003, in line with the newest “forecast overview” of world oil markets, issued Tuesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The American government energy statistics and analyses agency said the world’s top consuming nations — China, america, and India — have tapped oil inventories at a record pace to assist offset the lack of over 11 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern output in May, in comparison with pre-conflict levels.
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The reduced availability of fuel has also contributed to a spike in the worth of petroleum products, in line with the report.
Diesel and aviation jet fuel wholesale prices are set to extend by “greater than 60 per cent in 2026 and 40 per cent in 2027” and wholesale gasoline prices increasing “by 50 per cent in 2026 and nearly 40 per cent in 2027,” in comparison with pre-conflict prices.
The report assumes maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “will remain effectively closed within the near term,” but oil shipments will resume within the third quarter of 2026.
Even with the reopening of the Strait, the EIA predicts it’s going to likely take several months for production to return to pre-conflict levels, which it doesn’t think will occur until early 2027.
–with files from Reuters
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