Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia prediction, odds, pick for UFC Freedom 250

UFC Freedom 250 is finally here from the South Lawn of the White House as we bring you a prediction and pick for the opening bout within the Featherweight (145) Division. No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes of Brazil takes on Recent Mexico’s No. 9 Steve Garcia. Check our UFC odds series for the Lopes-Garcia prediction and pick.

Diego Lopes (27-8) is 6-3 contained in the UFC since debuting in 2023. He opened with a 5-1 record but is 1-2 over his last three fights. He challenged Alexander Volkanovski for the belt in a rematch but got here up short and hopes to bounce back against a brand new contender. Lopes stands 5-foot-11 with a 72.5-inch reach.

Steve Garcia (19-5) has gone 8-2 contained in the UFC since 2020, winning his last seven consecutive bouts for one among the longer lively winning streaks within the featherweight division. He most recently put away David Onama and Calvin Kattar in succession, now trying to steal Lopes rating and immediately place himself on the doorstep of a title shot. Garcia stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.

UFC Freedom 250 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Freedom 250 Odds: Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Odds

Diego Lopes: -155

Steve Garcia: +130

Over 1.5 rounds: -130

Under 1.5 rounds: +100

Why Diego Lopes Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Alexander Volkanovski – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 12 SUB

Diego Lopes fell short to Alexander Volkanovski once more in his first title opportunity, putting together a greater showing through the first half of the rematch but ultimately losing momentum by the third round. Volkanovski looked like his usual dominant self and it goes to point out the degrees inside this featherweight division. Still, Lopes’ most up-to-date wins over top talents like Jean Silva, Brian Ortega, and Dan Ige suggest he’s still probably the most lethal finishers within the UFC and is fighting on this White House card for a reason.

Lopes’ striking has gotten worlds higher since his arrival to the UFC and he’s been rather more comfortable remaining on the feet and never forcing the grappling as much. Nonetheless, he’ll still be at a slight drawback against a pure boxer like Garcia who’s very quick together with his hands and fluid together with his movement. Lopes should as a substitute look to make use of striking in organising his takedowns and forcing the grappling where he can truly achieve success during this fight.

That is easier said than done and it will take plenty of quick decisions along the fence for Lopes to effectively bring Garcia down as he sports a formidable 88% takedown defense. Lopes may have to get creative in using arm drags and inside trips to catch his opponent off-guard in addition to maximizing openings on the bottom to reverse positions. Garcia is an excellent wrestler but we should always see a stern gap within the jiu jitsu skill levels and timing.

Why Steve Garcia Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) David Onama – U DEC (punches, R1)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 15 KO/TKO

Steve Garcia has been flawless during this recent run through the rankings as he’s beaten impressive, multi-faceted opponents like Melquizael Costa, Chase Hooper, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. During that run, Garcia has been awarded 4 ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses because of his slick boxing and skill to complete the fight decisively. He’s been a quiet, consistent finisher and the UFC is finally rewarding him with a probability to position himself atop the division.

Garcia’s biggest strength is his boxing and his ability to flow through the exchanges. He doesn’t typically absorb an excessive amount of damage on the feet as his striking defense is on the upper end at 59%. He lands a blistering 5.39 significant strikes per minutes, clearly outpacing Lopes in all categories on the feet.

During this fight, he’ll must use lively foot movement and consistently remain able to sprawl and stuff the takedowns from Lopes. Expect his opponent to shoot for takedowns in desperation if Garcia is piecing him up on the feet early. Either way, Garcia may have to be rather more cautious in facing Lopes in comparison with every other opponent he’s seen up so far.

Final Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Prediction & Pick

That is arguably the closest fight on the Freedom 250 card when it comes to styles as Diego Lopes owns the grappling and Steve Garcia owns the stand-up. Things could also be harder for Lopes, nevertheless, as Garcia may be very strong together with his takedown defense and will encourage Lopes to try to beat him with wild punches on the feet.

This fight might be determined by the primary few takedown attempts and the way easily Lopes is in a position to get Garcia on the bottom. If he struggles, it would not be surprising to see Garcia construct an enormous lead within the striking numbers, making it harder for Lopes to stay competitive.

For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Steve Garcia to earn the win in a particularly close fight. He can have the blueprint on beating Lopes from Volkanovski and if his hands are on-point, he’ll dominate within the striking department. Still, the full over is the much safer play here.

Final Diego Lopes-Steve Garcia Prediction & Pick: Steve Garcia (+130); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-130)