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UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the major card with the major event fight between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Kape-Horiguchi prediction and pick.
Manel Kape (22-7) enters on a three-fight winning streak, most recently stopping Asu Almabayev via third-round TKO at UFC Fight Night in March 2025, after dropping a unanimous decision to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 304 in July 2024. The Portuguese-Angolan flyweight has won six of his last seven, with nine KO wins in his profession, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kyoji Horiguchi.
Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5, 1 NC) enters UFC Vegas 119 on a shocking four-fight win streak, most recently submitting Tagir Ulanbekov via third-round rear-naked choke at UFC Fight Night in November 2025, before outlasting Amir Albazi via unanimous decision in February 2026. The Japanese flyweight legend carries 20 profession stoppages and has looked as sharp as ever as he comes into his fight this weekend against Manel Kape.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Manel Kape-Kyoji Horiguchi Odds
Manel Kape: -162
Kyoji Horiguchi: +136
Over 4.5 rounds: -135
Under 4.5 rounds: +105
Why Manel Kape Will Win
Manel Kape is one of the crucial explosive and dangerous strikers in the whole flyweight division, carrying legitimate one-punch knockout power that has ended fights at every level of competition he has competed in. His nine profession KO wins and three-fight winning streak heading into this matchup signal a fighter who is working at peak confidence and sharpness.
Kape’s southpaw stance creates constant stylistic problems for orthodox fighters like Horiguchi, generating awkward angles and power shot setups which can be difficult to arrange for even with the perfect coaching staff. The moment Horiguchi walks into one in every of those left hands, this fight might be over straight away.
Horiguchi, despite his impressive recent form, is 34 years old and has collected significant wear and tear across a 41-fight profession spanning multiple organizations including UFC, Rizin, and Bellator. Kape at 30 years old brings a brisker body and faster reflexes into this flyweight major event.
Kape’s TKO win over Asu Almabayev showed he can finish fights late in rounds when opponents begin to tire, demonstrating the form of championship-level pressure that Horiguchi may struggle to handle over a full three rounds.
With the house crowd energy of a major event slot and a mode built for spectacular finishes, Kape’s explosiveness and ending instincts make him essentially the most dangerous man on this fight from the opening bell.
Why Kyoji Horiguchi Will Win
Kyoji Horiguchi is one of the crucial technically gifted flyweights to ever compete within the UFC, bringing a mix of elite striking, elite grappling, and championship-level fight IQ that only a few fighters within the division can match. His four-fight win streak heading into this matchup proves this is not a fighter running on fumes — he’s actively acting at the very best level of his profession.
Horiguchi’s 64% significant strike defense is among the finest in the whole flyweight division, meaning Kape’s vaunted knockout power shall be significantly harder to land cleanly against a fighter who slips, rolls, and counters with elite precision. Kape’s path to victory runs almost exclusively through landing that one big shot, and Horiguchi’s defensive awareness makes that incredibly difficult.
The Japanese legend also carries five submission wins and has shown the flexibility to tug fighters to the mat and finish them there, giving him a whole second dimension that Kape simply cannot ignore. If Horiguchi takes the fight to the bottom, Kape’s ending threat evaporates entirely.
Horiguchi’s recent submission of Tagir Ulanbekov in November 2025 showed his grappling stays razor sharp, while his unanimous decision over Amir Albazi proved he can pace himself and win rounds intelligently over the complete duration of a fight.
With the experience of 41 skilled fights, two world championships, and the composure of a real veteran, Horiguchi’s technical mastery and multi-dimensional game plan give him a really convincing path to shutting Kape’s explosiveness down and winning this major event on the scorecards.
Final Manel Kape-Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction & Pick
That is essentially the most compelling stylistic clash on the whole UFC Vegas 119 card, a power-punching southpaw finisher against a technically flawless veteran with two world championships and a four-fight win streak to his name.
Kape’s knockout threat is real and ever-present, but Horiguchi’s 64% strike defense and elite defensive awareness make him one in every of the toughest flyweights on the earth to catch cleanly. The longer Horiguchi survives the early rounds, the more his technical superiority begins to take over.
Horiguchi’s ability to win via submission, decision, or TKO gives him three distinct paths to victory, while Kape’s game plan relies heavily on landing that one defining power shot. That versatility is a large advantage on the major event level.
At 34, Father Time is the one real query mark surrounding Horiguchi, but his November 2025 submission win and February 2026 decision victory suggest the clock hasn’t caught up with him yet.
Final Manel Kape-Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction & Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi (+136), Over 4.5 Rounds (-135)
UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the major card with the major event fight between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Kape-Horiguchi prediction and pick.