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UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins in the ladies’s bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Mesquita-Mullins prediction and pick.
Bia Mesquita (7-0) is an ideal and undefeated in MMA, most recently submitting Montserrat Rendon via first-round rear-naked choke at UFC Vegas 114 in March 2026, after tapping out Irina Alekseeva in round two at UFC Rio last October. The Brazilian BJJ legend has five submission wins and has looked absolutely flawless as she comes into her fight this weekend against Melissa Mullins.
Melissa Mullins (7-2) is 2-2 contained in the UFC, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Darya Zheleznyakova in June 2025, after stopping Klaudia Sygula via second-round TKO in November 2024. The English bantamweight has been out of motion for nearly a 12 months as she comes into her fight this weekend against Bia Mesquita.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Odds
Bia Mesquita: -550
Melissa Mullins: +410
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
Why Bia Mesquita Will Win
Bia Mesquita is one of the vital decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors ever to step inside an MMA cage, and her 7-0 undefeated record with five submission wins speaks for itself. Each time this fight hits the mat, Mesquita becomes essentially the most dangerous person within the constructing.
Mullins holds zero submission wins across her entire skilled profession, meaning her ground defense is totally unproven against elite-level BJJ. Mesquita doesn’t just threaten submissions, she finishes them, and she’s going to immediately expose that vulnerability the moment she gets a hold of Mullins.
Mesquita has also shown she doesn’t need the bottom game to win, landing a TKO finish and demonstrating improving striking in her recent UFC appearances. That versatility makes her nearly unattainable to game plan against at this level.
Mullins is coming off a unanimous decision loss and has been out of the Octagon for nearly a 12 months, raising legitimate questions on her timing and sharpness heading into fight week. Ring rust against a fighter as sharp and energetic as Mesquita is a recipe for disaster.
With Mesquita training out of American Top Team and peaking at 35 years old, her experience and technical mastery make her the clear favorite to submit Mullins inside two rounds.
Why Melissa Mullins Will Win
Melissa Mullins holds a major physical edge over Mesquita, standing 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach in comparison with Mesquita’s 5-foot-4 frame, and that size advantage at bantamweight isn’t something that may be coached away. If Mullins can use her length to maintain the fight standing and control distance, she neutralizes Mesquita’s entire game plan before it even starts.
Mullins has 4 TKO wins on her record and carries real knockout power for the division, meaning one clean punch can change all the pieces no matter Mesquita’s submission credentials. Mesquita has only been tested on the UFC level twice, and Mullins’ physical output and forward pressure could present problems she simply hasn’t faced before.
Mullins also boasts a 50% striking accuracy rate contained in the Octagon, showing she’s not only throwing wild shots but landing with real precision. If she will be able to stuff takedowns early and make Mesquita uncomfortable on the feet, the boldness advantage shifts quickly.
Mesquita’s path to victory runs almost exclusively through the grappling — if Mullins can keep the fight upright and use her reach to pepper Mesquita from the surface, her striking arsenal becomes the deciding factor.
With an outstanding fight camp reported heading into this week and fighting with nothing to lose because the underdog, a motivated and physically imposing Mullins has a really real path to a surprising upset.
Final Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Prediction & Pick
This fight has all of the makings of a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, with Mullins needing to maintain the fight standing in any respect costs while Mesquita hunts relentlessly for a takedown or clinch entry.
Mullins’ size and reach give her an actual probability to make Mesquita uncomfortable early, and if she lands one in all those TKO-finishing shots, this fight is over instantly. Nevertheless, Mesquita has shown the power to shut distance quickly, and the moment she gets her hands on Mullins, the submission clock starts ticking.
The near-year of inactivity for Mullins is an actual concern — timing and rhythm are all the pieces in MMA, and Mesquita has been sharp and energetic through two dominant UFC performances. The momentum and sharpness gap between these two fighters is important.
Mesquita’s zero losses, five submission wins, and elite BJJ pedigree are simply an excessive amount of for a fighter with no submission wins on her record to unravel in three rounds.
Final Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Prediction & Pick: Bia Mesquita (-550), Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins in the ladies’s bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Mesquita-Mullins prediction and pick.