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UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk within the middleweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Magomedov-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick.
Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) is some of the experienced middleweights on the complete UFC roster. He dominated Michel Pereira with a unanimous decision in April 2025 to increase his winning streak, but then suffered a rough setback, getting submitted via rear naked choke by Joe Pyfer in round two at UFC 320 in October 2025. He’ll be seeking to bounce back in a giant way as he comes into his fight this weekend against Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9) has been an absolute wrecking ball currently. The Polish middleweight TKO’d Sedriques Dumas at UFC 314 in April 2025, then blitzed Gerald Meerschaert with first-round punches at UFC 319 in August 2025 before grinding out a unanimous decision over Marc-Andre Barriault in February 2026. Three straight wins, all business, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abus Magomedov.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
Abus Magomedov: -112
Michal Oleksiejczuk: -108
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +105
Why Abus Magomedov Will Win
Abus Magomedov enters this fight with a large stylistic advantage, and it lives on the mat. With a 100% takedown defense and a 59% takedown accuracy, Magomedov controls where the fight takes place and has the wrestling credentials to impose his will from the opening bell.
Oleksiejczuk’s grappling has been a career-long liability, with six submission losses on his record, a blueprint that elite grapplers have exploited repeatedly on the UFC level. Magomedov’s favorite techniques are chokes, and he has 4 guillotine finishes alone, meaning Oleksiejczuk will likely be in immediate danger each time a clinch or scramble develops.
At 6’2″ with a big reach advantage, Magomedov can operate at range on the feet while peppering Oleksiejczuk with low kicks and straight punches before closing the gap and changing levels. His 49% striking accuracy and three.07 significant strikes per minute aren’t flashy numbers, but they reflect a composed, efficient fighter who picks his shots somewhat than brawling recklessly.
Oleksiejczuk only defends the takedown 52% of the time, which is an invite Magomedov will likely be desperate to accept repeatedly. After the setback against Pyfer, Magomedov has every motivation to return to his wrestling-heavy game plan and remind the middleweight division exactly how dangerous he’s when he’s operating at his best.
Why Michal Oleksiejczuk Will Win
Michal Oleksiejczuk is some of the dangerous knockout artists in the complete middleweight division, and his stats back it up brutally. Ranked 94th percentile in KO/TKO ability, he averages 1.15 knockdowns per quarter-hour and lands 5.85 significant strikes per minute, a volume and power combination that makes every exchange a life-or-death situation for his opponents.
Magomedov carries a well-documented cardio problem that has derailed him in multiple fights at the best level. He was winning against Sean Strickland before physically falling apart in round two, and the identical collapse happened against Joe Pyfer, a pattern that a pressure fighter like Oleksiejczuk will exploit mercilessly.
Oleksiejczuk has 15 profession KO wins and eight first-round finishes, meaning he doesn’t need long to place the lights out. Magomedov absorbs 3.43 significant strikes per minute, and with Oleksiejczuk’s distance striking accuracy sitting at 48%, the Polish powerhouse has every tool needed to search out the chin early and sometimes.
The Hussar is currently riding a three-fight win streak and operating with the sort of confidence that comes from back-to-back first-round stoppages. Magomedov is 35 years old with fading cardio and a freshly exposed chin, Oleksiejczuk smells blood, and on this division, that is all a finisher needs.
Final Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick
This can be a classic striker vs. grappler battle, and while Oleksiejczuk’s knockout power demands respect, the smart money lands on the person who can dictate where this fight takes place. Magomedov’s 100% takedown defense and elite wrestling credentials give him the flexibility to neutralize Oleksiejzcuk’s most dangerous weapon before it ever fully loads.
Oleksiejczuk will come out swinging early, searching for the fast finish the best way he at all times does, but Magomedov has the composure and the clinch work to weather that early storm and drag the fight into uncomfortable territory.
Once Magomedov secures a takedown and begins working his guillotine setups, Oleksiejczuk’s six profession submission losses develop into the defining storyline of this matchup. The Hussar has been caught on the mat before, and Magomedov has the ending pedigree to make it occur again.
At 28-7-1 with a profession built on suffocating grappling, Magomedov has every tool to bounce back in style and put the middleweight division on notice.
Final Abus Magomedov-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick: Abus Magomedov (-112), Over 1.5 rounds (-130)
UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk within the middleweight division. Try our UFC odds series for our Magomedov-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick. Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) is some of the experienced middleweights on the complete UFC roster.