PHILIPPINE STOCKS may sustain their momentum this week on expectations of easing inflation, but investors may stay cautious over geopolitical developments and macroeconomic risks.
On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) jumped by 1.01% or 62.31 points to shut at 6,188.03, while the broader all shares index rose by 0.83% or 27.91 points to finish at 3,370.94.
Week on week, the PSEi increased by 115.79 points from June 26’s finish of 6,072.24.
“The local market exhibited positive momentum as global oil prices declined while the Philippine economy achieved higher income status from the World Bank. Nevertheless, trading was thin, reflecting tepid market confidence as uncertainties remain,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.
For this week, June Philippine inflation data to be released on Tuesday (July 7) could be considered one of the important thing trading drivers in addition to negotiations between the US and Iran.
“Philstocks estimates inflation to are available at 6.5%. If inflation exhibits a decline from the prior month’s 6.8%, we may even see a positive response from the local bourse,” Mr. Tantiangco said.
“Expectations of tamer consumer prices in June will support follow-through buying. A June print below May (6.8%) should help the PSEi sustain its short-term push towards 6,200-6,400,” F. Yap Securities, Inc. said in a market note.
A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 6.6% for June inflation, slower than the 6.8% recorded in May but faster than the 1.4% in the identical month last yr. That is throughout the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 6%-7% forecast.
If realized, June inflation would ease for a second straight month and could be the slowest for the reason that 4.1% recorded in March.
Nevertheless, it will even be the fourth consecutive month that the buyer price index would breach the BSP’s 2%-4% goal.
“The situation between the US and Iran is seemingly subdued thus far. This in turn has calmed oil prices, in some way giving us relief with our inflation outlook. Nevertheless, no everlasting resolution has been established between the 2 yet. Hence, uncertainties remain,” Mr. Tantiangco added.
He said the market’s latest rise could fuel bargain hunting, although investors are more likely to stay cautious amid downside risks.
With the PSEi now above the 6,150 resistance in addition to its 200-day exponential moving average, these could possibly be retested this week, he added. “If the market manages to carry ground at 6,150, this might be regarded as its latest support while next resistance is seen at 6,400.”
“Political risk premium views might be on highlight, depending on how the Senate will tackle (Vice President Sara Z.) Duterte’s impeachment trial. Also, firmer details are awaited from Doha-mediated US-Iran peace treaty, as discussions remain fluid,” F. Yap Securities said. “June’s inflation print and BSP’s forward guidance on rates of interest have a direct impact on consumer and investment spending.” — Alexandria Grace C. Magno