Prime Minister Mark Carney is jetting off Monday to the two-day NATO summit in Turkey’s capital city Ankara, where world leaders will seek to avoid diplomatic friction with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Massive hikes to military budgets are expected to feature prominently as NATO members remain under heavy U.S. pressure to spend rather more on defence. But within the background, divisions remain over how much of a threat Russia poses and the chaotic foreign policy of the Trump administration.
Gaëlle Rivard Piché, the top of the Canadian defence think-tank CDA Institute, said this summit might be about alliance members proving their spending is on the right track and can lead to stronger militaries.
“It’s going to be about showing that (we’ve put) our money where our mouth is. Beyond just announcing investments and moving money around, it’s actually using that cash to amass recent capabilities,” she said.
In 2014, the identical yr that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, alliance members agreed to satisfy a goal of spending two per cent of national GDP on defence.
NATO says Canada, which had long struggled to succeed in two per cent, is finally meeting that focus on through tens of billions of dollars in recent military spending. But two per cent is now the ground, not the ceiling.
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The July 7-8 NATO summit is the primary since nearly all member states endorsed a daring pledge at The Hague last yr to every spend five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
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NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said that while allies can rejoice the alliance reaching the 2 per cent goal, they need to now present “credible” plans to hit the upper benchmark.
At a chat placed on by the Washington-based Atlantic Council think-tank last month, Rutte said the five per cent figure is “deeply rooted” in estimates of what the alliance must develop its capabilities.
“That (two per cent figure) was a bit plucked from the air,” he said.
The Carney government is predicted to speak up its efforts to spice up defence spending and investment within the defence sector. Government officials said at a background briefing on Friday that Canada projects its defence spending will hit 2.13 per cent of GDP for the 2026-2027 fiscal yr, and five per cent by 2035.
The federal government has not publicly revealed the way it plans to succeed in the 2035 goal and has not officially booked it into the fiscal framework.
Kerry Buck, a senior fellow on the University of Ottawa and Canada’s former ambassador to NATO, said Canada goes into the summit in “fairly good order” on the accounting front — something that has seldom been the case up to now.
But because the 2025 summit, Trump has doubled down on actions which have shaken the alliance and widened the diplomatic divide.
On top of threatening to go away the alliance, he has mused about annexing Greenland. He launched a surprise war against Iran, then berated NATO allies for failing to assist him. And the U.S. has also began a drawdown of American troops and capabilities in Europe.
The summit has been slimmed right down to reduce the possibilities of friction over U.S. foreign and defence policy breaking out into the open.
“NATO has to paper over some issues that may probably be higher addressed. It has to maneuver to the bottom common denominator because the price of drama is simply too high for the alliance immediately,” Buck said.
“Is the pragmatic approach the appropriate one to take? Absolutely. But what a pity, since the threat environment is worse than it has ever been.”
Former U.S. diplomat Brett Bruen said the alliance is making “significant progress” on ramping up military spending, “not least due to the threat Trump represents to global stability and security.”
Still, Bruen said, “the vibe goes to be very awkward” and no matter how countries act, “we’re more likely to see a litany of complaints from Trump, and maybe some threats in addition to insults.”
“From a Canadian perspective, I’ll be watching to see if Carney can carve out an expanded role for himself because he actually is one in every of those leaders throughout the alliance that has the potential to emerge as a centre of power,” he said.
In January, Carney delivered a speech to the worldwide elite in Davos, Switzerland about middle powers banding together within the face of great power pressure. The speech won rave reviews from allies around the globe, and rebukes from the Trump administration.
“I don’t necessarily want us to face out,” Rivard Piché said. “There’s safety in numbers in the present environment.”
NATO allies are also expected to make a series of defence industrial announcements in the approaching days for contracts value tens of billions of dollars.
The prime minister can also be expected to speak on Tuesday at a defence industry forum side event about financing defence capabilities.
Rivard Piché said she’s watching to see whether Canada reveals details in regards to the planned recent Defence, Security and Resilience Bank or any recent contracts for Canadian firms under the SAFE program. Carney has publicly pushed for the defence bank.
Canada announced on the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Évian, France last month that tactical radio manufacturer Marconi Technologies is the primary Canadian firm to land a contract under the SAFE defence procurement agreement Canada has signed with the European Union.
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