LEONARDO CUARESMA remembers when a day at Scarborough Shoal almost guaranteed a full catch. Nearly a decade after the Philippines won an international arbitration case against China, the 60-year-old fisherman says that promise stays out of reach as Chinese vessels proceed to maintain Filipino boats away from one in every of their richest traditional fishing grounds.
“The arbitral ruling was significant,” Mr. Cuaresma, who heads a fishermen’s association in Zambales province, said by phone in Filipino. “Nevertheless, though we won the case, it didn’t help our livelihoods.”
Defense economist Rocio Salle Gatdula said the arbitration victory stays legally significant but has produced little practical profit for fishermen.
“Nevertheless politically impactful the arbitration was, the ruling has not improved access for Filipino fishermen to traditional grounds like Scarborough Shoal, with Chinese forces continuing to harass and restrict entry despite the legal invalidation of China’s claims,” she said via Facebook Messenger.
The Philippines brought China before a United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal in 2013, difficult Beijing’s sweeping “nine-dash line” claim over many of the South China Sea.
On July 12, 2016, the Everlasting Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China’s expansive maritime claims had no legal basis under international law and that Beijing had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights inside its exclusive economic zone.
The ruling also found that China unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from accessing Scarborough Shoal, a conventional fishing ground shared by the Philippines, China and Vietnam. Beijing has consistently rejected the choice.
Known locally as Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal, Scarborough lies about 220 kilometers west of Zambales. The coral atoll has long sustained fishing communities in western Luzon with its abundant marine resources.
“Bajo de Masinloc could be very vital for us because in times of need, we all know that there’s a place where we will catch fish,” Mr. Cuaresma said. He described the shoal as so wealthy in fish that they appeared “like grains of unhusked rice scattered across the water.”
That abundance has develop into increasingly difficult to achieve.
China has maintained effective control over the shoal since a 2012 standoff with Philippine government vessels. Chinese coast guard, navy and maritime militia ships have since maintained a near-continuous presence across the atoll, recurrently driving away Filipino fishermen.
“They at all times tell us to not approach Bajo de Masinloc and drive us away,” Mr. Cuaresma said.
The Chinese Embassy in Manila didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment sent via Viber.
China has strengthened its presence around Scarborough despite the arbitral ruling. Chinese coast guard vessels accrued 933 ship-days across the shoal throughout the first seven months of 2026, nearly matching the 1,099 ship-days recorded for all of 2025, in response to a July report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).
AMTI said several coast guard vessels coordinated patrols around a fringe roughly 30 nautical miles from the shoal, while six to eight Chinese maritime militia vessels maintained a persistent presence closer to the lagoon.
Philippine maritime agencies have also stepped up patrols. AMTI estimated Philippine vessels averaged 43 ship-days a month near Scarborough in the primary half, a 43% increase from the previous yr.
‘CLOSE EYE’
The increased patrols have also resulted in additional confrontations. AMTI tracked 112 days of interaction between Philippine and Chinese vessels near the shoal in the primary six months, averaging 19 days every month.
The think tank also noted that China has adopted additional measures to bolster its presence. Last yr, Beijing established a 3,500-hectare marine reserve around a part of the shoal, and floating buoys have since appeared near the feature, prompting Manila to file diplomatic protests.
“As Beijing pushes the boundaries of just how much control it may well assert over the shoal, Manila and Washington would do well to maintain a detailed eye on Scarborough,” AMTI said.
Ms. Gatdula said the Philippines should proceed expanding joint patrols with allies similar to the US and Japan while sustaining transparency efforts documenting Chinese activities in contested waters.
She also urged the federal government to speed up the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ modernization program by acquiring more offshore patrol vessels, frigates, anti-submarine capabilities and maritime surveillance radars, while investing in domestic shipbuilding to strengthen long-term maritime presence.
Matteo Piasentini, a senior lecturer on the University of the Philippines and analyst for China and Indo-Pacific region at Italian think tank Geopolitica, said Manila should complement military modernization with investments in maritime infrastructure that strengthen coastal communities and economic activity.
“There are various measures that may very well be adopted, similar to developing maritime infrastructure in the realm,” he said. Such projects would improve the country’s maritime capability without necessarily requiring large-scale development of disputed features.
Mr. Piasentini added that China tends to accentuate maritime coercion when the geopolitical costs remain low, making credible deterrence essential.
He said relatively inexpensive assets similar to drones, small patrol vessels and subsea monitoring systems could significantly boost Philippine maritime capabilities.
For Mr. Cuaresma, the Philippines mustn’t stop asserting its rights even when Beijing continues to disregard the tribunal’s ruling.
“It’s vital to file one other case so our neighboring countries and allies will take notice,” he said. “It would show that we aren’t simply giving it away.”
For fishermen who once relied on Scarborough Shoal for his or her livelihoods, the 2016 arbitration victory stays more a legal milestone than a practical one.
Nearly a decade later, access to one in every of the country’s richest fishing grounds continues to be measured not by international law, but by the ships waiting at its entrance. — KCLB