It seems as if the world is afire this summer. But whilst wildfires in Europe and North America grow more extreme, key worldwide burning statistics are at a record low largely because Africa and Asia are controlling fire more.
Experts say these seemingly opposite trends are happening at the identical time due to what humanity is doing to the planet.
“It does seem to be a paradox because we’re talking increases in fires, yet the worldwide numbers have been taking place and down. But they’re each true,” said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada.
Spain’s wildfire is that country’s largest on record at greater than 193 square miles (500 square kilometers) while wildfires in Europe have burned only a bit under 2025’s all-time high. In Canada and the United States this summer, land burned by wildfires is a minimum of 25 per cent higher than the 10-year average and greater than double what it was a long time ago, in accordance with national wildfire centers. Entire chunks of the continent were choked by smoke, causing unhealthy air quality.
Fires are worsening by way of size, intensity, speed and frequency, especially within the U.S., Canada and Europe, said University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch.
“Extreme wildfires are on the rise globally in several parts of the world. And that’s the piece that you already know has us shaking in our boots,’’ Balch said.
Fires decrease in Africa, Asia
And yet the world went into July this yr with record low global emissions from burning fires, a key measure of their prevalence, the European climate center Copernicus reported. That’s because fires in Africa and Asia are way down as a consequence of changing agricultural practices, fire management and where individuals are moving to, said Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at Copernicus. Copernicus calculated that this yr’s carbon emissions from burning are the bottom since satellites first measured nearly 25 years ago — about half what they were within the early 2000s.
“Africa dominates the worldwide fire activity,” said UCLA water and fire scientist Park Williams. “So if there’s a trend in Africa, then that’s going to be the trend in the worldwide fire activity. In sub-Saharan Africa, fire activity during the last 25 years has gone down pretty dramatically.”
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On average, greater than three-quarters of the worldwide emissions from the burning of plant material comes from Africa and Asia, Copernicus statistics show. Lower than one-eighth comes from North America and Europe.
Traditionally, huge grassland fires on the African savanna burned every year, in comparison with more intermittent forest fires in other regions, influencing worldwide fire totals, said John Abatzaglou, a fireplace scientist on the University of California Merced. But with more land getting used for housing and farming, humans are limiting savanna fires, while also creating barriers to forestall fires from spreading, he said.
In Asia and the Amazon fires are sometimes used to clear land for agriculture, experts said. So, Williams said, “it truly is all driven by human demographic change.”
Human fingerprints on North American and European fire trends
In North America and Europe there are also “human fingerprints” on the more extreme fires dominating the news, but that’s from climate change Abatzaglou said. Climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas is making it hotter and drier — ideal fire weather — five different experts told The Associated Press.
Hotter temperatures mean humans “have our foot on the gas pedal” for larger fires, “but we even have lost the brakes on fire” because warmer and drier nights don’t give forests — or firefighters — time to get better during darkness like they used to, Balch said.
When it gets hotter, the atmosphere sucks more moisture out of the bottom, making it drier and easier to burn, Flannigan said. Climate change also increases the length of the burning season across North America and particularly in northern forests where there was only just a few days when the weather was conducive to wildfires, but now there are quite a bit more, he said.
And when climate change makes fire more extreme in places with larger populations, it tends to have a greater impact by burning more useful property, Flannigan said.
Abatzaglou said that North America has long done job of fireplace suppression. But with climate change making fires more intense and frequent, “we’re losing our ability to do this,” he said.
El Nino will add to fires
Fire activity is prone to worsen in the approaching months due to developing super strong El Nino. The weather pattern often triggers more dangerous fires within the tropics, less so in the USA due to more rain, experts said. South American governments are already getting prepared.
“Essentially the most predictable final result of El Nino goes to be more tropical fire, specifically tropical forests,” Williams said.
Williams said El Nino could increase fires within the Amazon region, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.
While El Nino means more rain and fewer forest fires within the U.S. West, it will possibly also mean more grass growth in deserts that adds fuel for eventual grass fires, Abatzaglou said. Examples of devastating grass fires include Los Angeles in 2025 and Hawaii in 2023.
No matter El Nino, scientists said areas in North America and Europe may have to enhance planning and adaptation for worsening wildfires, including prescribed burns to thin excess trees and grasses.
“It’s not an issue of whether our landscapes are going to burn, it’s the query of after they’re going to burn,” Balch said.
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