By Katherine K. Chan, Reporter
LOWER oil prices and increased consumer spending as classes reopened helped Philippine business sentiment get well in June after three straight months in negative territory, a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.
The BSP’s monthly business expectations survey (BES) yielded a 0% current-month confidence index (CI) in June, improving from the -25.2% in May.
A neutral or zero CI shows that optimistic and pessimistic respondents are nearly equal in number. A positive CI shows that more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic, while a negative CI shows otherwise.
“Philippine business sentiment improved in June as firms expected lower oil prices and energy costs to support increased business activity throughout the period, results of the newest Business Expectation Survey show,” the central bank said in an announcement on Friday.
“BES data also show firms anticipated a lift in consumer spending following the reopening of colleges throughout the month.”
The survey also showed businesses were more optimistic for the third quarter and the subsequent 12 months.
For the subsequent three months, firms’ CI stood at 18.8%, jumping from the 0.6% recorded in May, amid optimism that was driven by expectations of upper household consumption and easing inflation pressures.
Meanwhile, their CI for the yr ahead rose to 42.4% in June from 27.8% in May as they anticipate stronger demand for goods and services amongst consumers, in addition to higher local and global economic conditions amid hopes of a resolution to the Middle East war.
Nevertheless, businesses surveyed still expect inflation to stay above the BSP’s 4% ceiling, with their year-ahead projection at 5.6%. Still, this was slower than their 5.9% estimate in May.
“Businesses that expect higher inflation were concerned about higher energy cost and provide constraints, the continuing Middle East conflict, (and) peso depreciation,” the central bank said.
Inflation as of June averaged 4.8% as high oil prices and spillovers to other key commodities continued to drive the headline print past the BSP’s tolerance range.
The central bank expects inflation to average 6.4% this yr.
TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
Meanwhile, Philippine firms see tightening financial conditions but barely easing credit access, citing stiff domestic competition, insufficient demand, and financial concerns.
Businesses’ financial condition index, which gauges their general money position considering the extent of money and other money items and repayment terms on loans, worsened to -26.8% in June from -25.7% in May.
Alternatively, their credit access index improved month on month to -5.7% from -7.3%. This refers back to the firm’s external environment, comparable to the provision of credit within the banking system and other financial institutions.
Firms’ average capability utilization for the industry and construction sectors also climbed to 73.9% in June from 70.5% last month.
Meanwhile, Philippine businesses’ employment outlook index fell to 1.8% from 11.9% for the subsequent three months, and to twenty.2% from 20.4% for the approaching yr.
Nevertheless, the survey showed that more firms were willing to expand, with 20.4% saying they want to boost operations over the subsequent quarter from 9.7% in May. For the yr ahead, 18.7% expressed their intent to expand, higher than the 11.8% a month ago.
“Overall, the favorable business outlook could support economic growth for 2027,” the central bank said.
The BSP surveyed 515 firms nationwide, with 193 coming from the National Capital Region (NCR) and 322 from areas outside NCR, from June 5-30.