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UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the foremost card with a fight between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young within the lightweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Moises-Young prediction and pick.
Thiago Moises (19-9) needs a bounce-back performance after suffering a brutal first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon last May. Before that setback, the Brazilian grappling specialist secured a hard-fought decision win over Trey Ogden. His chin can be heavily tested by a high-volume prospect, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Gauge Young (10-3).
Gauge Young (10-3) is seeking to construct upon his first promotional victory. After dropping a tricky short-notice decision to Evan Elder, the American prospect rebounded strongly by besting Maheshate via unanimous decision, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Thiago Moises.
UFC Winnipeg Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Winnipeg Odds: Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Odds
Thiago Moises: +110
Gauge Young: -130
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
Why Thiago Moises Will Win
Thiago Moises holds an enormous experience advantage on this lightweight contest, possessing the precise high-level grappling credentials needed to derail the surging Gauge Young. The Brazilian veteran has consistently faced absolutely the elite of the 155-pound division, giving him a definite edge in composure and tactical awareness under the intense lights.
While Young brings aggressive forward pressure and solid striking, he routinely leaves his head on the middle line when throwing heavy mixtures. Moises can expertly exploit this defensive flaw by slipping contained in the American’s wide punches and immediately forcing grueling clinch exchanges against the fence.
Once the fight inevitably hits the canvas, the sheer discrepancy in elite submission grappling will turn out to be glaringly obvious. Moises is a highly decorated black belt who excels at seamlessly chaining submission attempts to overwhelm less experienced opponents who rely purely on raw athleticism.
Expect the seasoned veteran to weather any early striking storms before completely dictating the pace and placement of the fight. Moises will comfortably secure a second-round submission victory, proving there are still distinct levels to the lightweight division.
Why Gauge Young Will Win
Gauge Young possesses the precise stylistic tools needed to completely overwhelm the experienced Thiago Moises on this lightweight clash. The American prospect brings a relentless pace and high-volume striking attack that has historically caused severe problems for the Brazilian veteran.
Moises often struggles along with his overall offensive output, ceaselessly allowing aggressive opponents to dictate the terms of the fight. Young averages nearly six significant strikes per minute, which can let him easily outpoint his hesitant opponent and establish early octagon dominance.
While Moises desperately needs to tug this fight to the canvas to utilize his elite jiu-jitsu, he faces a really daunting task. Young boasts a formidable takedown defense rate that can effectively force the Brazilian to have interaction in a frustrating kickboxing match.
By consistently stuffing those predictable grappling entries, the American can systematically walk down his opponent and unleash heavy mixtures against the fence. Moises tends to shell up defensively when backed into the cage, offering Young a stationary goal to land damaging body shots.
Ultimately, Moises simply lacks the striking firepower needed to command respect or decelerate the surging prospect’s forward momentum. Expect Young to secure an enormous victory by executing a pressure-fighting masterclass to earn a transparent, dominant unanimous decision.
Final Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick
The highly anticipated lightweight clash between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young at UFC Winnipeg offers a classic stylistic battle between a seasoned grappler and an explosive striker. Moises brings massive octagon experience into the Canada Life Centre, desperate to utilize his world-class jiu-jitsu against a rising prospect.
Young enters his first foremost card appearance carrying significant momentum after securing his first promotional victory over Hayisaer Maheshate. The American prospect heavily relies on his aggressive forward pressure and high-volume kickboxing to ascertain control and systematically break down opponents.
Nevertheless, Young’s tendency to go away his head on the middle line when throwing heavy mixtures presents a dangerous opening for his veteran opponent. Moises is very adept at ducking under looping strikes to force grueling clinch sequences and secure his heavily favored takedowns.
Once this matchup inevitably hits the canvas, the stark difference in high-level submission experience will heavily dictate the terms of the fight. Young possesses solid takedown defense, but defending relentless grappling transitions from a decorated black belt is incredibly exhausting over fifteen minutes.
Expect the Brazilian veteran to weather an early striking storm from Young before effectively turning the competition right into a grinding grappling masterclass. Thiago Moises secured the mid-fight submission, counting on his elite ground game to derail the young prospect.
Final Thiago Moises-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (+110), Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott continues on the foremost card with a fight between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young within the lightweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Moises-Young prediction and pick. Thiago Moises (19-9) needs a bounce-back performance after suffering a brutal first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon last May.