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UFC Perth: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates continues on the most important card with a fight between Steve Erceg and Tim Elliott within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Erceg-Elliott prediction and pick.
Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4) has cemented himself as the most effective 125-pounders on the planet despite a rough stretch. He dropped an in depth unanimous decision title challenger rematch to Brandon Moreno in March 2025, then bounced back with a solid unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne in August 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tim Elliott.
Tim Elliott (21-13-1) is probably the most unorthodox and unpredictable fighters within the 125-pound division, and he showed his durability with a gutsy unanimous decision win over Victor Altamirano in June 2023 before dropping a call to the highly touted Muhammad Mokaev at UFC 294 in October 2023. He then picked up a notable win over Japanese prospect Kai Asakara at UFC 319 in August 2025 to remain relevant within the division, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Steve Erceg.
UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Steve Erceg-Tim Elliott Odds
Steve Erceg: -205
Tim Elliott: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: -245
Under 2.5 rounds: +185
Why Steve Erceg Will Win
Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg is just operating at a distinct level than Tim Elliott immediately, a former title challenger who pushed Brandon Moreno to an in depth decision in a world title fight is in a wholly different class than a journeyman like Elliott. The skill gap between these two men at this stage of their careers is important.
Erceg is an entire, technically polished fighter with elite grappling, crisp striking, and exceptional fight IQ. Elliott’s unorthodox style could cause problems for unprepared opponents, but Erceg has faced much more dangerous and dynamic fighters and located solutions each time.
Elliott at 21-13-1 is a fighter with serious miles on his body, he has been within the wars throughout a protracted UFC profession, and people amassed beatings have a way of catching up with veterans within the later rounds. Erceg’s conditioning and youth will likely be a decisive advantage because the fight progresses.
Erceg’s grappling credentials are elite at flyweight, and dragging Elliott to the mat gives him a dominant path to victory that avoids the chaos Elliott thrives in on the feet. Control the chaos, control the fight, and Erceg has the tools to do exactly that.
At home in Perth in front of his Australian fans, Erceg will likely be locked in and motivated to make a press release within the flyweight division. Expect a dominant, controlled performance that cements his place back within the title picture.
Why Tim Elliott Will Win
Never, ever count out Tim Elliott, the person has been written off more times than anyone can count throughout his UFC profession, yet he keeps finding ways to win and surprise the MMA world. His unorthodox, awkward fighting style has disrupted the sport plans of technically superior fighters for over a decade.
Elliott’s unpredictability is genuinely his biggest weapon, no camp can fully prepare for the chaos he brings into the cage. Erceg is a technically precise fighter who thrives when fights go based on plan, and Elliott focuses on ensuring nothing goes based on plan.
Erceg’s last performance against Ode Osbourne, while a win, was not a dominant statement, it showed he can still be tested and pushed on the flyweight level. Elliott is a much more experienced and dangerous opponent than Osbourne, with the tools to reveal those self same limitations.
Elliott has also faced elite competition throughout his profession, including world title contenders, meaning the stage isn’t too big for him. Erceg, for all his talent, continues to be constructing his mental armor at the very best level, and a wily veteran can exploit that.
Fighting in front of a hostile crowd in Perth could add unexpected pressure on Erceg if things start going sideways early. One scramble, one weird angle from Elliott, and this fight flips completely.
Final Steve Erceg-Tim Elliott Prediction & Pick
This fight is more competitive than the casual fan might think, but when the ultimate bell rings, Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg must have an excessive amount of for the veteran Tim Elliott. Fighting at home in Perth, with title contender credentials and elite technical skills, Erceg is the clear favorite on paper.
Elliott’s chaos-driven style will keep Erceg honest early, and the opening round may very well be scrappy and unpredictable. But Erceg’s superior athleticism, grappling, and cardio should allow him to settle right into a rhythm and impose his will because the fight progresses.
The deeper this fight goes, the more the talents gap becomes apparent, Elliott’s 21-13-1 record reflects the damage and tear of a protracted profession, while Erceg continues to be in his prime and hungry for an additional title shot.
Home crowd roaring and a degree to prove within the flyweight division, Erceg gets the job done convincingly.
Final Steve Erceg-Tim Elliott Prediction & Pick: Steve Erceg (-205), Over 2.5 Rounds (-245)
UFC Perth: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates continues on the most important card with a fight between Steve Erceg and Tim Elliott within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Erceg-Elliott prediction and pick. Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4) has cemented himself as the most effective 125-pounders on the planet despite a rough stretch.