Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki prediction, odds, pick for UFC 328

The UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Prelims proceed to roll from Newark, Latest Jersey as we’re back with one other prediction and pick for this Lightweight (155) tilt. American Top Team’s Grant Dawson takes on Poland’s Mateusz Rebecki in a highly-competitive scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Dawson-Rebecki prediction and pick.

Grant Dawson (23-3-1) is 11-2-1 inside his UFC tenure since 2019. He was riding a three-fight winning streak with two unanimous wins before falling to Manuel Torres via TKO in his last fight. He comes into this bout the slight favorite trying to bounce back and proceed his chase towards the rankings. Dawson stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.

Mateusz Rebecki (20-4) has gone 4-3 during his UFC tenure since 2023. He’s gone 1-3 over his last 4 fights, however the last three consecutive bouts he’s been in have been awarded ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Rebecki will likely be trying to turn in one other exciting performance as he tries for his first win since 2024, standing 5-foot-7 with a 66-inch reach.

UFC 328 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 328 Odds: Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Odds

Grant Dawson: -166

Mateusz Rebecki: +140

Over 2.5 rounds: -154

Under 2.5 rounds: +120

Why Grant Dawson Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Manuel Torres – TKO (strikes, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 13 SUB

After notching three straight wins over the likes of Joe Solecki (U DEC), Rafa Garcia (TKO), and Diego Ferreira (U DEC), Grant Dawson simply got caught during his last bout against Manuel Torres at UFC 323. Dawson got here within the -250 favorite to win, but Manuel Torres got here out with a distinct energy that night and landed an ideal uppercut to take a seat Dawson down early. He couldn’t do much to get better from that, but it surely could have served as a learning moment to remain ready irrespective of who the opponent.

This time around, Dawson may have to be rather more cautious as he’ll be coping with similar one-punch knockout ability from Rebecki. Dawson’s only two losses within the UFC have come by similar knockouts, but he’s been very defensive and technical otherwise each on the feet and on the bottom. He’ll have the clear grappling advantage over Rebecki and may look to take the fight there early in testing his opponent’s will.

All in all, Grant Dawson must be in a great position to win this fight with a noticeable size advantage. He’s quicker on the feet and more fluid along with his movements on the bottom, but there is no doubt he’ll have a tricky time putting away a durable fighter like Rebecki. As a substitute, Dawson should look to push a high pace in hopes of tiring his opponent and controlling the transitions on the bottom.

Why Mateusz Rebecki Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) L’udovit Klein – MAJ. DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Mateusz Rebecki has been incapable of a boring fight over his last five appearance, putting every thing into his striking and relentlessly walking down his opponents. He could have easily gotten the choice nod during his last loss to Klein, leading the striking total 113-90 and in addition landing three of his 12 takedown attempts. Two of his last three bouts have been razor-thin decisions that have not gone his way, so expect him to make a concerted effort in attempting to finish this one inside the gap and leave it out of the judges’ hands.

Rebecki is amazingly difficult to cope with due to his stature and willingness to walk forward through his opponents’ offense. He’s very physically strong and might control opponents along the fence, normally taking his time to clinch and grapple for a single leg if he can find it. He may not wish to mix things up an excessive amount of on the bottom against a robust grappler like Dawson, but Rebecki has seven submission victories of his own and has never been submitted in his profession.

Still, he’ll need to be defensive in his wrestling to avoid Dawson putting him on his back. Rebecki is rather more effective when he’s in a position to work from the highest in closed or half guard, so expect him to be the primary in pulling the trigger in relation to the takedown attempts.

Final Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Prediction & Pick

This fight must be highly competitive as each fighters mix for 20 submission wins with no submission losses between them. They might thoroughly respect one another enough to maintain this fight standing, but now we have to offer the slight grappling edge to Grant Dawson and the way dynamic he’s with transitions and submission attempts from in all places.

While Rebecki will likely be continuously threatening the knockout, I expect Grant Dawson to be rather more defensively sound coming off his last loss and searching like a much sharper version of himself. For our final prediction, let’s roll with Grant Dawson to earn the win as this fight should head towards a call.

Final Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Prediction & Pick: Grant Dawson (-166); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-154)