Blind side: Why World Cup economic impact on Vancouver, Toronto may never be known

Vancouver Foodie Tours is hoping to dine out on an influx of holiday makers for the FIFA World Cup, when soccer fans begin converging on town next month.

“We’ve actually custom curated the script and the tastings in each three of our tours to be themed with what’s occurring in town for that point and to essentially highlight the history of football in Vancouver,” said Veronica Irvine, operations manager for the corporate, which takes food lovers on dining journeys through town.

Irvine said the corporate previously did themed tours for fans on the town for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in December 2024.

“Event-driven experiences have been on the rise and Vancouver really comes alive when these events come into town, and it just makes a number of sense to simply be an element of it,” Irvine said.

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As FIFA banners and signage begin popping up, Destination Vancouver CEO Royce Chwin said he can “feel the momentum constructing” in town.

“We’ve seen our businesses begin to get on board with their plans and announce their events in and around town, whether or not it’s viewing parties, any of those sorts of things,” he said.

But while businesses like Vancouver Foodie Tours and tourism authorities are hoping for a lift when the tournament hits Vancouver and Toronto, some experts warn that it’s easier to discover winners and losers on the soccer pitch than in relation to the economics of the World Cup.

It’s only a month before the kickoff, but firm figures around the ultimate price tag of the event, its economic advantages and legacy remain unclear. Calculating the immediate boost is complicated by the very fact the tournament is displacing other events and occurring in what can be already be peak tourism season in each cities.

Wayne Smith, the director for the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the longer-term impact of hosting such an event could last a long time — but those advantages may never be quantifiable either.

“I’ve been taking a look at economic impact evaluation of events for over 20 years, and I can’t consider a way you possibly can do it legitimately and never be guessing,” he said.

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“For the World Cup, you will have to have a look at it more (as) a marketing exercise versus tourism impact.”

Smith said it’s a probability for cities to indicate off on a world stage, and potentially attract tourists for years to come back.

Toronto and Vancouver are amongst 16 cities across Canada, the USA and Mexico that can host a combined 104 games throughout the expanded 48-team tournament, running June 11 through July 19.

Toronto has set a $380-million budget for the tournament, which incorporates funding from the federal and provincial governments. FIFA has previously estimated as much as $940 million in economic output for the Greater Toronto Area.

The newest cost estimate for B.C., meanwhile, was provided by the province last June, where it said the estimate had jumped to between $532 million and $624 million, a rise of as much as 10 per cent on 2024 estimates. No latest figure was provided at an update on preparations last week.

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The B.C. government justified the prices last yr by saying the event would bring about 350,000 fans to the province and generate greater than a billion dollars of tourism within the five years after the games.

Jarrett Vaughan, an adjunct professor on the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, said it’s a good estimate for B.C., but “whether those numbers are accurate or not — it’s nearly inconceivable for anybody to know.”

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“It’s actually very difficult for the federal government to know these numbers, which is shocking because they seemingly are putting the cash in (so) how does the federal government not understand how much is definitely going to be spent?

“That is where, as taxpayers, we as residents, must query the federal government on the investment that they’re putting into events like this, and the way they may not understand how much money it’ll cost and what are the advantages of it.”

The federal government clarified its contribution last month as a part of its spring financial update, saying it’s providing $145 million toward security costs in Vancouver and Toronto.

B.C. will receive $100 million of those funds, however the provincial public safety minister said last month that the ultimate price tag won’t be known for weeks because security arrangements are still being worked out.

“So, as you may imagine, the prices related to safety and security will proceed to evolve, as we finalize preparations to welcome the world to the FIFA 2026 games,” Nina Krieger said.

It just isn’t as if the B.C. government is unaware of potential pricing pitfalls. Under former premier John Horgan, it initially said in March 2018 it was not prepared to have Vancouver function a bunch city due to cost concerns.

Horgan said later that his government wasn’t willing “to write down a blank cheque.”

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Nevertheless it later modified its mind, citing a possible boost to the tourism sector hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Montreal, nevertheless, dropped its candidacy in July 2021 after the Quebec government withdrew financial support, citing costs and restrictive FIFA demands.

Quebec’s Tourism Ministry said in an emailed statement that its evaluation of the marketing strategy found that the prices of hosting the games in Montreal would “vastly exceed estimates.” It also noted that FIFA requirements would mean many sports infrastructure assets can be unavailable for other use for an prolonged time.

“With all this in mind, the federal government continues to carry the view that it was the appropriate decision to not submit a bid for Montreal to be a FIFA host city,” the statement said.

‘THE CITY WOULD HAVE BEEN SOLD OUT ANYWAY’

Smith, from Toronto Metropolitan University, is skeptical about direct tourism advantages for Vancouver and Toronto.


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He said June and July are already busy tourism times in each cities — in Toronto, he noted, the World Cup takes place concurrently Pride and the Blue Jays hosting the Latest York Yankees.

“The town would have been sold out anyway,” he said, adding that the query becomes whether the World Cup might actually “displace among the individuals who would have got here for those other things.”

He said, for that reason, the direct tourism gain from the tournament will likely be “incremental,” and as an alternative it becomes a “longer-term marketing play from a pure tourism perspective.”

“Essentially, but what they’re taking a look at that is that it’s a probability to indicate off to the world what these cities are, and particularly in juxtaposition to the U.S.,” he said.

And the economic impact may never be known.

“Unless you’re going to stop each tourist that comes into town and say, ‘Did you see this on the World Cup? Is that this why you got here here?’ Nobody’s ever going to do this (and) I feel that’s really the one way you most likely could.”

In contrast, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour descended on Toronto and Vancouver in November and December, times that Smith called “perfect seasonally,” since they should not high traffic times for tourism.

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“The mega events, where you’re bringing them in off-season — like shoulder to off-season — that’s the proper thing for a city like Toronto or a city like Vancouver.”

Each Destination Vancouver and Destination Toronto acknowledge that another events are being pushed to either side of the tournament. But representatives weren’t overly concerned about displacement of other visitors.

Kelly Jackson, vice-president of destination development at Destination Toronto, said modelling suggests greater than half of ticket-holders for town’s six games can be from out of town.

Jackson also cited research by Destination Ontario and Contacts Research Group suggesting tourists coming to look at a match are expected to remain around five nights in town.

Chwin of Destination Vancouver said the World Cup may displace another visitors and “what it has done obviously is shifted business events and conferences.”

But he said it is going to be price it, and communities outside Vancouver may gain advantage from business that shifts out of town throughout the tournament.

“At minimum, it is going to be good. I feel at best (it) will increase and the compression will push business out into other communities, which can be a very great story for communities participating in World Cup and seeing a few of that economic activity of their areas.”

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The economic legacy of a significant event can last a long time — Smith pointed to the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver.

But one area where the Olympics won’t be matched is the infrastructure legacy of facilities getting used by residents for years after.

“Have a look at the general public transportation that probably wouldn’t have been built without the Olympics,” Smith said.

That included a brand new SkyTrain line into town, improvements to the Sea-to-Sky Highway between Vancouver and Whistler, the expansion of the Vancouver Convention Centre and construction of varied facilities including the Richmond Olympic Oval.

Such advantages won’t flow from the World Cup, Smith said.

But local businesses like Vancouver Foodie Tours are focused on the short term, wanting to tap into the joy while the games are on the town.

Irvine, the operations manager, said their World Cup theme tours, identical to the Swift-themed tours in 2024, draw on “authentic fan knowledge” from its team members. That, she said, is what drove the success of their Eras Tour event.

“We would like to have the ability to be an element of an exciting experience that the guests are travelling for,” Irvine said.

“I feel it’s only a fun win-win situation throughout where the guests get to be immersed within the (soccer) world and we get to an element of that.”

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