An authority has warned of a ‘serious possibility’ that Belarus could invade Ukraine, dragging one other European country into the continuing conflict.
Vladimir Putin is claimed to be ‘actively pressuring’ Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko to enter the war on his side, in response to UK Defence Journal editor George Allison.
He spoke days after Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, held major joint nuclear drills in Belarus.
At the identical time, work on key infrastructure which can be key for an invasion, like roads and artillery positions, has been ongoing in the previous Soviet state along its border with northern Ukraine for months.
All this has sparked fears that Belarus, whose leader has been closely wedded with Putin for many years, is ready to transcend vocally supporting Russia to take an lively part within the conflict.
Speaking from around 50 miles (70km) from the Belarusian border, Allison told Metro: ‘Ukraine has warned repeatedly this 12 months that Russia is build up military infrastructure in Belarus, including recent roads and artillery positions along the northern border.
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‘Kyiv says Moscow has been actively pressuring Lukashenko to commit Belarusian forces to the conflict, and claims to have details of direct conversations between Putin and the Belarusian leader.
‘Russia has already been using Belarusian territory to reinforce its drone strike operations against Ukraine, and just days ago conducted joint nuclear exercises on Belarusian soil involving Iskander-M missile launchers.
‘Western leaders are watching closely, with (French President Emmanuel) Macron having spoken to Lukashenko by phone this week.
‘Ukrainian military assessments have long argued that Minsk’s primary role has been to stretch Kyiv’s defences across multiple fronts, but intelligence now points to something more direct.
‘Zelensky says Ukraine is war-gaming scenarios wherein Russia uses Belarus to strike toward (Ukrainian cities) Chernihiv and Kyiv, or potentially a NATO member state.
‘Analysts say a full ground offensive would require Russia to redeploy forces it cannot currently spare from the front line, however the roads, logistics routes and artillery positions going up now mean that might change.
‘That is, I consider, an actual and serious possibility. It seems more likely to me that the pressure on Lukashenko will only grow.’
Allison spoke amid increasing pressure from inside Russia to finish the war, which has cost the country dearly on the battlefield and economically.
Russia’s military has suffered around 1.2 million casualties since Putin ordered the invasion greater than 4 years ago, in response to thinktank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Its economy has suffered badly too, because the then US President Joe Biden joined leaders from across the West to launch what amounted to an economic war on Russia immediately after the invasion.
This included a raft of sanctions, European countries rapidly reducing their reliance on low cost Russian gas, and it being thrown off the international payment system Swift.
While it rode this economic isolation and partially plugged the gap by selling increasing amounts of oil to India and China, it has still had an effect.
The recent loosening of some sanctions, including by the UK and US, amid the conflict between Iran and America, provided rare positive economic news.
Despite this, even the country’s own Ministry of Economic Development, often the Kremlin’s in-house optimist, has conceded the country faces at the very least two more years of stagnation.
Amid this growing discontent, often loyal Putin supporters have began to voice their concerns.
A well-connected business leader told the Guardian that there was ‘a growing sense that some type of catastrophe is looming’.
‘There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the many elites this 12 months … there’s profound disappointment in Putin,’ they added.
‘Nobody believes every thing will suddenly collapse tomorrow.
‘But there’s a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made.
‘Individuals who once defended Putin not do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.’
This pressure could have prompted Putin to make use of a speech he gave earlier this month on Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany, to say the war ‘was coming to an end’.
How this plays out stays to be seen.
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