Zhang Mingyang vs. Alonzo Menifield prediction, odds, pick for UFC Macau

UFC Macau: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo continues on the prelims with a fight between Zhang Mingyang and Alonzo Menifield in the sunshine heavyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Mingyang-Menifield prediction and pick.

Zhang Mingyang (19-7) enters the co-main event, with all 19 of his skilled wins coming in the primary round. He ripped off three straight UFC finishes, capped by a shocking first-round TKO over Anthony Smith in April 2025, before suffering a loss to Johnny Walker via leg kicks in August 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alonzo Menifield.

Alonzo Menifield (17-6-1) enters UFC Macau, having strung together back-to-back decision wins over Julius Walker in February 2025 and Oumar Sy in June 2025, before getting finished by Volkan Oezdemir in round 1 back in November 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mingyang Zhang.

UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Macau Odds: Zhang Mingyang-Alonzo Menifield Odds

Zhang Mingyang: -258

Alonzo Menifield: +210

Over 1.5 rounds: +140

Under 1.5 rounds: -180

Why Zhang Mingyang Will Win

Zhang Mingyang is probably probably the most uniquely dangerous fighter on all the UFC roster, each considered one of his 19 skilled wins has come by first-round finish, making him an absolute nightmare for any opponent who might be touched. That sort of relentless, all-gas-no-brakes pressure is sort of unimaginable to duplicate in training, and Menifield has never faced anyone quite prefer it.

Menifield’s biggest weakness is well-documented — he has been knocked out cold in back-to-back fights by Carlos Ulberg and Azamat Murzakanov, showing a recurring vulnerability to power strikers who can time him coming in. Zhang is arguably probably the most powerful first-round finisher in all the light heavyweight division, which is a devastating combination against a fighter who has already shown he might be hurt and stopped.

Fighting in front of a passionate Chinese crowd in Macau adds one other layer of energy to Zhang’s game — he has consistently fed off crowd enthusiasm to raise his already explosive performances. The house atmosphere will fuel his aggression from the opening bell, and Menifield may have to weather a direct storm with no secure harbor.

Menifield’s recent wins over Julius Walker and Oumar Sy were solid, but neither man carried anything near the ending power that Zhang possesses. When a fighter like “Mountain Tiger” gets rolling in the primary five minutes, history suggests the one thing that stops him is the ultimate buzzer, and Menifield simply doesn’t have the tools to survive that sort of chaos.

Why Alonzo Menifield Will Win

Alonzo Menifield enters this fight as a ranked UFC light heavyweight at #15, bringing a level of organizational experience and octagon-tested discipline that Zhang simply cannot match. With a 53% striking accuracy rate and a wealth of UFC experience since 2019, “Atomic” knows the way to manage distance, pace a fight, and avoid the sort of wild exchanges that Zhang thrives in.

Zhang’s one glaring weakness was exposed by Johnny Walker in August 2025, he was stopped within the second round by a striker who kept him at distance and picked him apart before ending him with punches. Menifield’s longer, more measured striking style mirrors exactly that blueprint, and he has the tools to duplicate it.

Zhang’s entire game plan collapses if the fight gets beyond the primary round, as all seven of his losses have shown he has zero answers when opponents weather the storm and begin timing him. Menifield’s durability and cardio are specifically designed to survive early pressure and switch the tables within the championship rounds.

“Atomic” also holds a 76-inch reach advantage that offers him a critical range tool to maintain Zhang’s blitz attacks from finding their mark. If Menifield can stay disciplined, use his jab to regulate distance, and survive the early chaos, experience and ring generalship should carry him to a call or late stoppage victory.

Final Zhang Mingyang-Alonzo Menifield Prediction & Pick

That is the co-main event for a reason, two explosive light heavyweights with legitimate knockout power colliding in front of a packed Chinese crowd that will probably be firmly behind the Mountain Tiger. The atmosphere alone may very well be the difference-maker, as Zhang has shown repeatedly that crowd energy elevates his game to a different level.

Menifield’s blueprint for fulfillment is real, stay disciplined, use the jab, and survive the first-round storm before picking Zhang apart. But surviving Zhang Mingyang’s opening assault is way easier said than done, and Menifield’s recent KO losses suggest his chin may not delay under that sort of pressure.

Zhang’s 19 straight first-round finishes is one of the vital remarkable statistics in MMA today, and there isn’t a reason to bet against it continuing in his own backyard. The house crowd will ignite him, and Menifield will feel every little bit of that energy.

Final Zhang Mingyang-Alonzo Menifield Prediction & Pick: Zhang Mingyang (-258), Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)