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UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim kicks off the prelims with a fight between Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi within the strawweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Souza-Carnelossi prediction and pick.
Ketlen Souza (16-6) has quietly been constructing momentum within the UFC strawweight division. “Esquentadinha” bounced back in impressive fashion at UFC Vegas 113 in February 2026, earning a unanimous decision victory over Bruna Brasil. With eight profession KO/TKO victories and a relentless pressure style, Souza looks to maintain that momentum rolling as she comes into her fight this weekend against Ariane Carnelossi.
Ariane Carnelossi (15-4) enters UFC Vegas 118 off back-to-back mixed results. The Brazilian strawweight picked up a win over Piera Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night in May 2024 via disqualification after an illegal headbutt, but then dropped a submission loss to Talita Alencar via rear naked choke in November 2025, — as she comes into her fight this weekend against Ketlen Souza.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds: Ketlen Souza-Ariane Carnelossi Odds
Ketlen Souza: -305
Ariane Carnelossi: +245
Over 2.5 rounds: -238
Under 2.5 rounds: +180
Why Ketlen Souza Will Win
Ketlen Souza has the quantity advantage on this matchup, averaging 4.0 significant strikes per minute in comparison with Carnelossi’s 2.6 — a spot that might be hard to beat over three rounds. Her boxing-based style and elite counter-striking ability allow her to do damage from every range.
Souza has eight profession KO/TKO wins and five first-round finishes, meaning she doesn’t have to wait for the judges to get her hand raised. That ending instinct is a significant edge over a Carnelossi who most recently got submitted within the third round against Talita Alencar.
Carnelossi did beat Souza back in 2019 via TKO body kick, but that was a special version of “Esquentadinha”. Souza has since won seven of her last nine and adjusted training camps ahead of her UFC Vegas 113 fight to sharpen her game.
Souza’s Luta Livre grappling background also gives her a submission threat that Carnelossi simply cannot ignore on the bottom. If this fight hits the canvas, the advantage shifts firmly in Ketlen’s favor.
With higher output, ending power, improved camp preparation, and a well-rounded arsenal, Souza looks just like the more complete fighter heading into Saturday. Expect her to outwork Carnelossi and potentially get the stoppage inside the space.
Why Ariane Carnelossi Will Win
Ariane “Sorriso” Carnelossi has already proven she will be able to beat Ketlen Souza — she finished her via TKO body relax in 2019, and that blueprint continues to be very much in her arsenal. Proof of concept matters in MMA, and Carnelossi has already cracked the code on this exact opponent.
A Muay Thai specialist, Carnelossi’s leg kicks and body work have been a weapon throughout her profession, and Souza has shown she might be hurt by that type of attack. If Carnelossi can establish her range early and return to the body, she will be able to slow Souza down significantly.
Carnelossi’s 15 profession wins show a fighter who knows tips on how to get the job done against tough competition. She has experience going deep into fights and ending opponents, giving her the conditioning and mental toughness to grind through any adversity.
While Souza throws more volume, Carnelossi’s accuracy and Muay Thai timing allow her to land cleaner, more damaging shots. In a fight where one big shot can change every part, quality over quantity might be the deciding factor.
Carnelossi is the more seasoned mixed martial artist on this stylistic matchup, and her familiarity with Souza’s tendencies gives her a novel mental edge. Don’t sleep on “Sorriso” pulling off the upset this Saturday night.
Final Ketlen Souza-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick
Ketlen Souza (enters this fight as a major favorite, and for good reason, her output, ending ability, and improved camp preparation make her the more dangerous fighter heading into Saturday night. Souza’s boxing-based style and 4.0 significant strikes per minute give her the quantity edge that is tough to beat over three rounds.
That said, Ariane “Sorriso” Carnelossi can’t be counted out, she has already finished Souza once before with a body kick TKO back in 2019, and that Muay Thai threat stays very real. If she will be able to establish her range early and goal the body, she has a legitimate path to victory.
Expect this fight to begin cautiously, with each fighters feeling one another out in the primary round before the motion picks up. Souza’s superior output and ending instinct should carry her through the championship rounds as she grinds out a hard-fought but clear victory over three rounds at UFC Vegas 118.
Final Ketlen Souza-Ariane Carnelossi Prediction & Pick: Ketlen Souza (-305), Over 2.5 Rounds (-238)
UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim kicks off the prelims with a fight between Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi within the strawweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Souza-Carnelossi prediction and pick. Ketlen Souza (16-6) has quietly been constructing momentum within the UFC strawweight division.