STABLE GLOBAL labor conditions for Filipinos and diversified sources may help cushion the impact of worldwide uncertainties on remittance flows to the country, based on Maybank Investment Bank.
Maybank Chief Economist Suhaimi Ilias and economist Azril Rosli said they still expect money remittances to grow by 2.8% to $36.5 billion in 2026, noting signs of resilience in underlying remittance trends.
This can be a tad faster than the central bank’s projected 2.7% climb in remittances to $36.6 billion this 12 months. Nonetheless, it should be weaker than the three.3% growth to $35.6 billion seen last 12 months.
“Moving forward, OFW (overseas Filipino employee) remittances are expected to stay broadly resilient over (the second half of 2026), supported by stable overseas employment conditions and continued demand for Filipino staff across key destination markets,” Mr. Ilias and Mr. Rosli said.
Nonetheless, in addition they flagged potential risks from the over four-month long Middle East war, which they said may keep remittances growth subdued all year long.
“(W)e maintain our projection for 2026 remittances to grow by 2.8% 12 months on 12 months to $36.5 billion, although downside risks from heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly within the Middle East, remain elevated and will contribute to month-to-month volatility,” Mr. Ilias and Mr. Rosli said.
“Growth momentum is prone to remain modest amid softer global economic conditions and elevated geopolitical uncertainties,” they added.
The newest Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data showed that growth in money remittances remained at a four-year low of two% to $2.713 billion in May. That is likewise the bottom inflows seen in a 12 months or because the $2.658 billion in May 2025.
The USA remained the most important source of OFW remittances in May, accounting for over 39% of the whole.
Nonetheless, the BSP noted that this might only reflect the proven fact that most remitting banks are based there and that not all remittances recorded from the US were generated inside the country.
Remittances from other top country sources corresponding to the Philippines’ neighbors Japan and Taiwan, Middle Eastern nations Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in addition to Canada picked up month on month.
“Collectively, these trends point to continued resilience in remittance dynamics across key source markets,” Mr. Ilias and Mr. Rosli said.
“Although headline growth remained moderate, the broad diversification of remittance sources continues to offer a very important buffer against external shocks, helping sustain overall remittance inflows amid heightened global uncertainty,” they added.
OFWs based within the Middle East sent home $447.73 million in May, 8.9% lower than the $491.569 million they remitted in April. Nearly 20% of all remittances flowing to the country are sourced from the region, which hosts over 2.4 million Filipinos.
Meanwhile, total money sent home by OFWs within the January-to-May period hit a record-high $14.11 billion, climbing by an annual 2.5% from $13.766 billion.
Mr. Ilias and Mr. Rosli said this implies migrant Filipinos’ remittances have held up despite a “difficult external environment.”
This got here at the same time as the five-month remittance growth stood because the weakest because the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when remittances in the course of the same period declined by 6.4%.
Meanwhile, the Maybank economists’ remittance forecast also comes on the back of its projection that the peso will settle on the P61 mark against the dollar by yearend.
Protected-haven demand for the greenback amid persistent uncertainties surrounding the continued Middle East war has weighed on the local unit, pushing it to check back-to-back historic lows.
From the P57- to P58-a-dollar prewar level, the peso has plunged to average over P61 versus the greenback in May and June. It hit a record-low of P61.75 to the dollar on May 18 and 19.
Maybank likewise projects the peso to complete at P61 against the dollar in 2027. — Katherine K. Chan