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UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Talita Alencar and Julia Polastri within the strawweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Alencar-Polastri prediction and pick.
Talita Alencar (7-1-1) is riding a two-fight win streak, recently securing a choice over Vanessa Demopoulos before submitting Ariane Carnelossi, as she comes into his fight this weekend against Julia Polastri.
Julia Polastri (14-5) carries a ton of experience into the Octagon. The aggressive Brazilian strawweight recently rebounded from a troublesome decision loss to Lupita Godinez by securing a formidable third-round TKO victory over veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz, as she comes into his fight this weekend against Talita Alencar.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Talita Alencar-Julia Polastri Odds
Talita Alencar: +205
Julia Polastri: -250
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
Why Talita Alencar Will Win
Talita Alencar is primed to defeat Julia Polastri this weekend because her elite grappling poses a stylistic nightmare for the aggressive striker. While Polastri prefers to bite down on her mouthpiece and throw heavy leather, that forward momentum is strictly what Alencar must initiate the clinch.
Polastri has historically struggled against opponents who can chain takedowns together and drown her with constant top pressure. We saw Lupita Godinez expose these defensive gaps by repeatedly dragging Polastri to the mat, and Alencar possesses an identical level of wrestling persistence.
Once the fight hits the canvas, the disparity in pure Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree becomes an enormous, undeniable advantage for Alencar. With multiple BJJ world championships on her resume, she doesn’t just control her opponents; she actively hunts for fight-ending submissions from every conceivable angle.
Alencar simply must weather the early striking storm and use calculated cage cutting to force Polastri against the fence. As soon as she traps Polastri in those tight spaces, her smothering grappling transitions will completely neutralize any striking threat.
Expect Alencar to secure the victory by turning this stylistic clash right into a grueling, one-sided grappling clinic. She is going to exhaust Polastri with heavy top control before eventually sinking in a definitive, fight-ending submission.
Why Julia Polastri Will Win
Julia Polastri is ready to defeat Talita Alencar this weekend because her significant striking advantage will ultimately dictate where this fight takes place. As a highly aggressive Muay Thai practitioner, Polastri possesses the essential volume and striking power to maintain Alencar continually on the back foot.
Alencar is undoubtedly an elite grappler, but her takedown entries can sometimes be telegraphed when she is unable to shut the space easily. Polastri’s footwork and lateral movement will likely be the important thing to frustrating those wrestling attempts and forcing a pure kickboxing match.
If Polastri can utilize sharp jabs and damaging leg kicks from the surface, she’s going to severely hinder Alencar’s ability to blow up into the clinch. We’ve got seen Alencar struggle when she cannot consistently dictate the grappling exchanges, and Polastri has the defensive awareness to use that exact weakness.
Once the striking distance is firmly established, Polastri will unleash her signature mixtures and heavy right hand to build up significant damage. Her ability to take care of a high, aggressive pace over three rounds will slowly drain the gas tank of the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist.
Ultimately, this classic matchup boils right down to whether the striker can effectively neutralize the grappler’s early submission attacks. Expect Polastri to showcase elite takedown defense and utilize her superior stand-up game to secure a convincing, dominant victory.
Final Talita Alencar-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick
When Julia Polastri fights Talita Alencar at UFC Vegas 116, prediction markets will favor the Brazilian kickboxer’s striking volume. Nevertheless, blindly backing Polastri’s aggression ignores the severe grappling threat that Alencar presents when the space closes.
Polastri is the superior striker, utilizing heavy hands and relentless pressure to interrupt her opponents down. The issue is that this forward motion often leaves her hips exposed to well-timed takedowns from high-level grapplers.
Alencar thrives in chaotic scrambles, and her elite submission pedigree allows her to capitalize on even the smallest mistakes. Once the fight hits the canvas, the disparity in ground experience becomes an enormous liability for Polastri.
Expect Alencar to weather the early storm before ducking under a heavy combination to secure a pivotal takedown. She is going to establish dominant top control and eventually lock in a good rear-naked choke to successfully money a winning ticket because the clear betting underdog.
Final Talita Alencar-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick: Talita Alencar (+205), Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Talita Alencar and Julia Polastri within the strawweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Alencar-Polastri prediction and pick.