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UFC Perth: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates continues on the prelims with a fight between Colby Thicknesse and Vince Morales within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Thicknesse-Morales prediction and pick.
Colby Thicknesse (8-1) enters this fight with clear momentum and residential crowd energy firmly behind him, having already proved he belongs within the UFC together with his gutsy decision win over Josias Musasa at UFC Perth last September. Fighting in front of his Australian fanbase for the second time gives him a psychological edge that should not be underestimated.
Vince Morales (16-10) enters Perth on the flawed end of a rough skid. The veteran bantamweight dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions, falling to Elijah Smith in February 2025 after which to the highly touted Raul Rosas Jr. in March 2025. Now he looks to stop the bleeding, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Colby Thicknesse.
UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Colby Thicknesse-Vince Morales Odds
Colby Thicknesse: -125
Vince Morales: +105
Over 2.5 rounds: -280
Under 2.5 rounds: +210
Why Colby Thicknesse Will Win
Colby “Slickness” Thicknesse enters this fight with clear momentum and residential crowd energy firmly behind him, having already proved he belongs within the UFC together with his gutsy decision win over Josias Musasa at UFC Perth last September. Fighting in front of his Australian fanbase for the second time gives him a psychological edge that should not be underestimated.
Morales is riding a two-fight losing streak, and back-to-back decision losses have a way of quietly eroding a fighter’s confidence heading into camp. Thicknesse, against this, has energy and forward momentum on his side. His slick movement and boxing-heavy striking style is tailor-made to counter a veteran like Morales who relies heavily on rhythm and timing. If “Slickness” can dictate the pace early and control distance, Morales will struggle to seek out his groove.
The age and freshness factor also plays a big role here — Thicknesse is an emerging prospect still developing, while Morales is a seasoned veteran with loads of miles on the odometer. Deep in championship rounds, that difference in legs and conditioning could turn into decisive.
Ultimately, the mixture of home crowd advantage, recent momentum, and a stylistically favorable matchup makes Thicknesse the pick. Prediction: Colby Thicknesse by unanimous decision.
Why Vince Morales Will Win
Don’t let the two-fight losing streak idiot you: Vince “Vandetta” Morales is some of the experienced bantamweights on the UFC roster, with a 16-10 record and a wealth of high-level octagon experience. Losing to Elijah Smith and Raul Rosas Jr. isn’t any disgrace, as each men are legitimate threats within the division.
Morales’ experience gap over Thicknesse is big, he has faced far tougher, more dynamic opponents than anything “Slickness” has encountered in his young UFC profession. That type of tested composure under pressure is what separates veterans from prospects when the fight gets difficult.
Thicknesse’s win over Josias Musasa was widely considered a narrow, unimpressive performance, three rounds of scrappy motion that many felt could have gone either way. Morales is a considerably sharper and more dangerous opponent who is not going to let Thicknesse settle into a snug rhythm.
Morales also carries real ending power and has the submission game to threaten Thicknesse in multiple areas. A motivated veteran with something to prove is some of the dangerous opponents in combat sports.
Backed against the wall after two consecutive losses, Morales will are available in with a chip on his shoulder and a desperate hunger to show things around. Prediction: Vince Morales by unanimous decision.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Vince Morales Prediction & Pick
This fight has upset written throughout it, and Vince “Vandetta” Morales is the person to deliver it on Saturday night in Perth. A desperate veteran with back-to-back losses and something to prove is a dangerous animal, and Thicknesse must be wary of walking into that fireside.
Morales brings a level of experience and octagon IQ that Thicknesse simply hasn’t faced before in his short UFC profession. When fights get ugly and uncomfortable within the later rounds, Morales knows the best way to grind, adjust, and survive in ways a 1-1 UFC fighter hasn’t been tested on yet.
Thicknesse’s narrow win over Musasa revealed real questions on his ability to impose himself over three full rounds. Morales will exploit those gaps with veteran timing, calculated aggression, and the type of seasoned ending instincts that come from 26 skilled fights.
Morales grinds this out over three hard rounds and gets the choice he desperately needs.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Vince Morales Prediction & Pick: Vince Morales (+105), Over 2.5 Rounds (-280)
UFC Perth: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates continues on the prelims with a fight between Colby Thicknesse and Vince Morales within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Thicknesse-Morales prediction and pick.