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UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland continues on the predominant card with the co-main event flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Van-Taira prediction and pick.
Joshua Van (16-2) enters UFC 328 on a five-fight winning streak and already owns wins over two of the division’s biggest names. The reigning flyweight champ outdueled Brandon Royval by unanimous decision in June 2025, then shocked Alexandre Pantoja with a 26-second first-round TKO to win the belt in December as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tatsuro Taira.
Tatsuro “The Best” Taira (18-1) is on a scorching hot streak heading into the largest fight of his profession. The Japanese submission ace neck-cranked HyunSung Park in round two at UFC Fight Night in August 2025, then delivered the signature win of his profession by TKO’ing the legendary Brandon Moreno in round two at UFC 323 in December 2025 — announcing himself because the undisputed No. 1 flyweight contender as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joshua Van.
UFC 328 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 328 Odds: Joshua Van-Tatsuro Taira Odds
Joshua Van: +136
Tatsuro Taira: -162
Over 3.5 rounds: -125
Under 3.5 rounds: -105
Why Joshua Van Will Win
Joshua Van is probably the most complete flyweight on the planet right away, and his championship-level boxing, elite takedown defense, and championship experience give him a decisive edge over a contender who has never fought for a UFC title before. The brilliant lights of a co-main event title fight at UFC 328 are a very different beast than anything Taira has experienced.
Van’s 81% takedown defense is a critical statistic on this matchup, because Taira’s entire game plan revolves around dragging opponents to the mat and submitting them. If the champion can keep the fight standing for prolonged stretches, Taira’s most dangerous weapon becomes completely neutralized.
The champion’s striking volume and accuracy are also significantly superior to Taira’s, and his ability to keep up championship pace across all three rounds has been repeatedly demonstrated in title defenses. Taira, despite his impressive ending streak, has never been tested at this level of opposition.
Van’s composure and ring generalship under pressure are also elite — he doesn’t make mistakes in big moments, and Taira will need every little thing to go perfectly to dethrone a champion who has looked virtually flawless in recent performances.
Why Tatsuro Taira Will Win
Tatsuro Taira is probably the most submission-dangerous flyweight on the planet right away, and his ability to search out chokes and cranks from virtually any position on the mat makes him a nightmare matchup for any champion no matter defensive credentials. His rear-naked choke of HyunSung Park and his TKO of Brandon Moreno proved he can finish elite-level opposition.
Van’s 81% takedown defense is impressive on paper, but Taira isn’t a normal takedown artist — he’s a scramble-based submission hunter who finds openings in transition that the majority fighters never even see coming. One lapse in concentration from Van could end the fight immediately.
Taira’s TKO victory over Brandon Moreno — a former two-time UFC flyweight champion — is probably the most significant résumé win in this whole matchup, and it proves he can impose his will and finish elite opposition when the stakes are highest. Van has never faced anyone with Taira’s ending ability.
The momentum and confidence Taira carries into Newark after back-to-back finishes is an intangible that can not be measured on a stat sheet. Hungry, red-hot contenders with world-class submission skills have an extended history of shocking champions on the largest stages.
Final Joshua Van-Tatsuro Taira Prediction & Pick
This looks like a razor-close flyweight title fight, but Joshua Van’s pace, volume, and takedown defense give him the slightest edge on Saturday. Van lands 8.84 significant strikes per minute and defends 81 percent of takedowns, which is a big factor against a grappler like Tatsuro Taira.
Taira is completely live because his submission game is probably the most dangerous weapon within the matchup, and his recent finishes of HyunSung Park and Brandon Moreno showed he can capitalize fast. Still, Van’s 26-second title-winning stoppage of Alexandre Pantoja and his decision win over Brandon Royval suggest he’s peaking at exactly the suitable time.
I believe Taira has moments early, especially in scrambles, and his 70-inch reach could help him create entries into the clinch. But over five rounds, Van’s sharper boxing, championship confidence, and skill to maintain the fight standing barely enough should tilt the scorecards.
Final Joshua Van-Tatsuro Taira Prediction & Pick: Joshua Van (+136), Over 3.5 Rounds (-125)
UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland continues on the predominant card with the co-main event flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira within the flyweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Van-Taira prediction and pick. Joshua Van (16-2) enters UFC 328 on a five-fight winning streak and already owns wins over two of the division’s biggest names.